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Showing posts with label Property. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Property. Show all posts

Saturday, September 14, 2024

STRONG PUSH FACTOR FOR PROPERTY MARKET

 

Country’s higher economic growth a feel-good element that is spilling over to the sector

“Inflation levels are benign at about 2% and with the ringgit appreciating against currencies such as the Singapore and Australian dollar, it indicates increased confidence.” Datuk Ho Hon Sang


KUALA LUMPUR: The property market appears to have several strong push factors going for it in the bigger picture, although developers are by and large still cautious despite any broader positivity.

The Real Estate and Housing Developers’ Association of Malaysia’s (Rehda) Property Industry Survey reveals the market is stabilising, amid continued concerns on rising costs on key core cost components such as building materials.

Survey respondents said there was more than a 10% annual increase in the average price for sand, which is used mainly in infrastructure projects, glass and concrete; while costs for steel appear to have declined or tapered off as at June 30.

Unsold units are featured as among the key highlights in the results of this survey whereby half of its respondents reported having unsold completed residential units.

A third of these unsold completed residential units were more than three years old, while about half of them were less than a year old.

A majority or 46% of the survey’s respondents reported that their unsold completed units were priced at RM500,000 and below.

According to survey respondents, the main reasons for this situation were end-financing loan rejection, low demand or interest and bumiputra lots.

The survey, which was done for the first half of 2024 also includes forecasts based on the survey on the market outlook for the second half of this year and the first half of 2025.

It collated responses from 162 out of over 1,500 Rehda members.

According to Rehda president Datuk Ho Hon Sang, the survey only includes a small number of respondents among its larger count of members and does not reflect all launched projects or sales made within the period under review although it can indicate the sentiment on the ground.

“The higher than estimate economic growth thus far gives the country a feel-good factor which spills over to the property market as well.

“Inflation levels are benign at about 2% and with the ringgit appreciating against currencies such as the Singapore and Australian dollar, it indicates increased confidence.

“There are also huge infrastructure projects that are being announced such as the West Coast Expressway which will open up more economic areas,” Ho said at a media briefing yesterday.

“An example is data centres. From 2021 to 2023, there were more than RM76bil of investments into this area, which attracts the established multinational companies.

“This has a very feel-good factor for the property market – as data centres are not just a one-time capital expenditure but provides opportunities during the operations and maintenance period.

“For example, Microsoft has committed to training up to 200,000 talents to maintain DCs,” he added.

Apart from that, there is the stable government and the coming Urban Redevelopment Act that will be focused on the Kuala Lumpur area which will further spur economic activities.

“All these have a part to play in transforming and influencing the sentiment of the people,” said Ho.

Increased demand may also come from increased foreign participation in the property market, although Ho indicated the price threshold is different in the various states and may be too high in some to spur any meaningful foreign buying.

Commenting on the unsold residential units, Ho noted a third of unsold completed bumiputra lots have aged more than three years, which is an issue that the industry needs to address eventually.

“Developers are still treading carefully when it comes to their business operations, despite the improving industry conditions in terms of launches and sales,” he said.

Ho added that this is expected, given the increase in prices for some building materials, which have hit smaller developers harder than larger property development companies.

Rehda also notes that more environmental, social and governance-friendly construction practices such as pre-cast and industrial building systems will increase costs for smaller developers, although it would help to reduce costs for bigger developments.

“For pre-cast panels, the production is centralised and for developments such as high-rises which feature a standard design, it can help to reduce costs on higher volumes with a standard mould.

“For terrace houses with standardised designs, it would be okay but for customised designs it would be difficult for the pre-cast suppliers to do.

“So most developers would still prefer the conventional building style (traditional construction methods) for landed properties.

“But the bigger developers are proceeding with using pre-cast panels even for their landed developments,” Rehda’s deputy-president Datuk Zaini Yusoff told StarBiz.

Zaini said bigger developers usually have their own in house pre-cast manufacturing capabilities.

Commenting on this new construction technology, Ho said it can increase costs for some developers by up to 10% to 15% based on feedback from Rehda’s members.

“This includes transportation costs from the pre-cast plant to the construction site as these costs (diesel) have gone up now and the deployment of skilled labour, since one cannot use normal manual labour to put these together.

“These causes the cost increase,” Ho said.

The survey also indicated that for the next 12 months, respondents look forward to higher optimism for the first half of 2025 compared with the second half of this year.

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Friday, September 6, 2024

Uptrend emerges for property sector

 
Investments in Malaysia fuel long-term growth


UOBKH Research maintains an “Overweight” call on the property industry,.

Property transactions are reaching all-time highs, oversupply is dropping, and investment in the real estate sector is on the rise.”-UOB Kay Hian Research


PETALING JAYA: UOB Kay Hian Research (UOBKH Research) is keeping its optimism on the property sector, despite acknowledging that second quarter (2Q24) earnings results for the companies under its coverage were a mixed bag.

The research house said among the eight firms it reports on, four had results that were in line with its expectations, three fell short, while one exceeded projections.

The research house said: “S P Setia Bhd’s results shortfall was due to a significant impairment on its Battersea projects in Britain, while UEM Sunrise Bhd’s (UEMS) weak results were due to lower-than-expected progressive billings, caused by delays in construction and deliveries of raw materials.”

At the same time, it said IOI Properties Group Bhd (IOIPROP) also reported weaker-than-expected earnings on lower-than-anticipated contributions from China, although Sunway Bhd exceeded expectations, driven by higher progressive billings from both the group’s property and construction segments.

Despite the performances of several companies coming in below forecasts, UOBKH Research said that industry players under its coverage recorded 2Q24 net profit growth of 26% quarter-on-quarter and 60% year-on-year (y-o-y).

Outside its coverage scope, the research house said that both Sime Darby Property Bhd (Simeprop) as well as Eastern & Oriental Bhd exceeded consensus estimates on strong progressive billings.

“Developers are on track to achieve their 2024 sales targets, having reached approximately 50% of their goals so far.

“Lagenda Properties Bhd (Lagenda) and Simeprop led the way with double-digit sales growth for the quarter, as the former’s 2Q24 sales surged 19% y-o-y to Rm300mil, marking the highest quarterly sales in the company’s history,” the research house said.

Simeprop also saw impressive sales growth, with 2Q24 sales increasing by 45% y-o-y, prompting the group to revise its full-year sales target upward to Rm3.5bil from Rm3bil.

For the second half of the year (2H24), UOBKH Research said it is expecting stronger earnings from almost all companies under its coverage, with the exception of S P Setia and IOIPROP. It added that S P Setia’s land sales quantum is expected to be much lower in 2H24.

“Meanwhile, Ioiprop’s first few quarterly results for its financial year ending June 2025 (FY25) may be weak as we will see a jump in interest costs from its IOI Central Boulevard project in Singapore as that becomes fully operational in October this year,” the research house said.

Nonetheless, it believes IOIPROP has the potential to surprise on the upside due to the higher-than-expected launches recently as well as possibility of better-than-anticipated sales of Marina View in Singapore.

Overall, it said excluding land sales gain, sector net profit for 2024 and 2025 are expected to grow by 13% and 20%, respectively, driven by higher progressive billings on higher property sales and launches.

On a separate note, the research house said August share prices for property counters were hit by negative sentiment, driven primarily by the emergence of sinkholes in Kuala Lumpur, which itself led to the suspension of construction approvals in the capital.

UOBKH Research reported that the latest directive now requires planning permission applications for buildings in the city to include a geotechnical study by certified engineers.

“We gather that these geotechnical study rules have been in place since 2022, and are not new regulations.

“Developers in Kuala Lumpur such as Mah Sing Group Bhd also reiterated that they have been following all the guidelines and are in compliance with all the requirements, including the necessary geotechnical studies, hence, they do not anticipate issues with ongoing projects or future launches,” it added.

Maintaining an “Overweight” call on the property industry, UOBKH Research believes a long-term uptrend has emerged in the sector, fuelled by record-high total investments in Malaysia over the past two to three years.

It said property transactions are reaching all-time highs, oversupply is dropping, and investment in the real estate sector is on the rise.

“This growth is supported by several key factors including the expansion of industrial developments, which provides developers with new expansion opportunities and reduces reliance on residential projects, as well as increasing land values driven by the establishment of special economic and financial zones, rising demand for data centres, and new infrastructure projects,” it noted.

Top picks for the sector are IOIPROP, Lagenda and Mah Sing, with target prices of RM3, RM2.32 and RM2.29, respectively.

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Monday, August 5, 2024

Property market and affordability

 

Affordability goes hand in hand with income.

Affordability goes hand in hand with income.

THE older wisdom believes that a market cycle typically lasts about 10 years. While this is not set in stone and social media has somewhat disrupted this timeframe, one sector that seems to have moved in tandem with this timeline is the property sector.

The Malaysian property market has been on a downtrend for close to a decade. Take the KL Property Index (KLPRP). It has not revisited its peak in 2024. From a high of 1,524 on Aug 18, 2014, it fell to a low of 495 on March 23, 2020, during the Covid-19 lockdowns.

However, this past year, the KLPRP has performed extraordinarily, rebounding to 1,132 as at July 31, 2024, delivering a yearto-date return of 31%.

Is this the sign that our property market is truly on the path to recovery? It the worst over for the sector which has been in the doldrums for over a decade?

The peak of the property market was marked with the rollout of the popular “Developer Interest Bearing Scheme”.

This scheme essentially allows purchasers of property to pay only the initial deposit, with the developer absorbing the interest throughout the construction period until vacant possession.

This eased the entry for many first-time homebuyers who were previously deterred by deposit and interest repayment obligations.

However, as the market overheated, the government abolished the scheme. Nonetheless, various modified schemes continue to exist in the market.

We started witnessing many businesses diversified into property development.

Firefighting equipment manufacturers, confectionery makers and even textile companies entered the sector and became property developers overnight.

This led to a surge in the supply of properties. We must remember, in the past, properties were built sideways.

With advancements in technology and new regulations such as higher plot ratios, properties started being built upwards, unlocking a significant number of units and pushing up land costs.

There was also the mushrooming of “property gurus” who conducted seminars on property investment, which spurred speculations further.

The worst were those that propagate “compressed loans”, where buyers exploited a loophole in the banking system by submitting multiple loan applications at the same time to various banks for several properties.

This allowed them to borrow loans for several properties as the system then was not able to catch these simultaneous submissions.

All was well and good when the market was hot, as buyers could do a quick flip.

But when the market turned, many of these buyers could neither find buyers nor rent out the properties. Without the financial ability to service multiple loans at the same time, their properties were auctioned by the banks.

This led to a huge number of property units being put on the auction market. The situation was further exacerbated when the pandemic hit, causing many people to lose their income.

At one point, there were more than 200 listed companies on Bursa Malaysia involved in property development. As the supply of unsold units far outpaced demand, there was a compression in margins and write downs for many listed developers.

Sales were affected and many projects which were launched could barely achieve 50% of the sales threshold.

The situation was further complicated by delayed project completions, leading to liquidated ascertained damages (LAD) claims piling up.

The verdict of Ang Ming Lee & Ors v Menteri Kesejahteraan Bandar [2020] 1 MLJ 281 led to many homebuyers filing suits against property developers, with the estimated claims reaching Rm48mil due to the extension of time (EOT) granted between 2016 and 2020.

The property market was indeed plagued with many challenges to a point where a veteran industry leader publicly commented that “the golden age of property sector is gone”.

As with all cycles, there is always a turning point. It seemed from the start of 2024, green shoots appeared for the property sector.

Firstly, the catalyst came when the government unveiled the potential of setting up a special economic zone for Singapore and Johor.

Secondly, the inflow of data centre investments drove up land transactions, with many property developers which had landbanks in Johor starting to cash out at significant premiums to their entry prices.

The average transaction price of agriculture land suited for the data centres was in the range of RM60 per sq ft.

Most of these land were less than RM30 per sq ft a year ago. This led to investors paying attention to the market down south.

Furthermore, banks’ appetite for end-financing picked up in the past two years, with an increase in both loan application submissions and approvals.

The latest Federal Court decision in Obata-ambak Holdings Sdn Bhd v Prema Bonanza Sdn Bhd and two other appeals, which discussed the Ang Ming Lee case, stated the ruling on the EOT shall only apply prospectively and not retrospectively.

This was the cherry on the icing, allowing many developers faced by mounting LAD claims to breathe a sigh of relief. It is quite clear that 2024 is an important year for property developers, with the sector seemingly to be firing on all cylinders.

Yet, the Khazanah Research Institute director in a webinar last week, highlighted that our housing market is consistently unaffordable and was against offering “affordable financing” with long tenures.

She proposed for the migration from the current sell-then-build model to the buildand-sell model like other developed countries.

In my view, this policy idea is regressive in nature and not suitable to the current economic structure of Malaysia.

It is too shallow as the crux of the problem of property ownership in our country is due to low wage growth rather than high property price.

Affordability goes hand in hand with income. If the people’s incomes do not increase, affordability will always be a problem, regardless of whether there is affordable financing or otherwise.

Similarly, the migration to build-and-sell will not help the property market pricing in any way apart from reducing abandoned housing or “Project Sakit”.

The repercussion of a migration in model is far-reaching.

While I do agree that this would weed out many incompetent property developers and offer better protection to homebuyers, the downside would be the impact on the supply of property to the market and risk of financially strong property developers cornering the market, leading to oligopolistic or cartel behaviour.

This would eventually drive asset prices up further due to supply scarcity.

At the end of the day, I believe the rationale for property ownership differs from one person to another.

Some believe that real estate is among the safest and most reliable asset classes for investment purposes and hedging against inflation.

Others believe that real estate has limited upside, hence renting is more practical without the long-term loan commitments affecting their lifestyle preferences. This is especially prevalent among the youth today.

My personal view is that the property sector, like any other sector, has its own cycles, and depending on which point one enters the market, there will be different outcomes.

This will shape individual perspective when it comes to property ownership.

Whether the sector remains positive in the long term depends heavily on two key factors – population growth and a burgeoning middle-income society.

By Ng zhu hann Ng zhu hann is the chief executive officer of tradeview Capital. he is also a lawyer and the author of Once upon a time in Bursa. the views expressed here are the writer’s own.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/insight/2024/08/03/property-market-and-affordability

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Friday, June 7, 2024

Bright future ahead for Malaysian properties

 Impressive growth chalked up in first quarter 2024



Nga: The ongoing property stock rally is expected to continue into the second half of 2024.

PETALING JAYA: The property market has a “bright future” in the coming years under the leadership of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, says Housing and Local Government Minister Nga Kor Ming.

Interestingly, the minister also made a forecast that the ongoing property stock rally is expected to continue into the second half of 2024.

He said this in a statement where he noted that property stocks on Bursa Malaysia have rallied by up to 600% since the beginning of 2023.

Nga also pointed out that property transactions reached RM56.53bil in the first quarter of 2024 (1Q24), demonstrating an “impressive growth”. 

Premised on investors’ bullishness on property stocks and the market appetite for properties, Nga said the local property market is expected to be stable this year.

The market is also likely to continue growing in the next three years, supported by various initiatives outlined by the Madani government under Budget 2024, he added.

“We must work together to enhance our industry’s reputation and increase the confidence level of investors to make the property market even more resilient,” the minister said.

Nga also noted that property counters in the stock market have been on the rise from January 2023 to June 2024.

Out of 100 property counters on Bursa Malaysia, approximately 76 counters experienced an increase in share price, 22 counters showed a decrease in share price and two counters maintained their share price despite fluctuations.

For instance, DPS Resources Bhd experienced 600% growth in its share price, UEM Sunrise Bhd saw a 347.06% increase and WMG Holdings Bhd also showed a 326.31% growth from January 2023 to June 2024.

A total of 23 counters have at least doubled their share price in the period, based on data provided in Nga’s statement.

Meanwhile, the minister highlighted the impressive growth in Malaysian property transactions.

“In 1Q23, Malaysia’s property market transactions were valued at RM42.31bil, with more than 89,000 transactions recorded. In contrast, in 1Q24, property market transactions reached RM56.53bil, with more than 104,000 transactions, marking an increase of RM14.22bil in terms of value.

“This significant growth indicates that Malaysia’s property market is recovering well and on the rise,” he said.

About three weeks earlier, Nga reportedly said that the country’s property overhang was clearing up. Quoted by Bernama, Nga said that since the Madani government took office, the number of completed but unsold property units had decreased by over 40% with a drop from 37,066 units to fewer than 24,000 units.

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