Malaysia's FDI figures down but not out

The year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in FDIs for 1H23 was also due to the strengthening of the US dollar, which capped FDI inflows, on top of the uncertainties before the state elections. - Nixon Wong

PETALING JAYA: Since coming into power last November, the unity government has made it abundantly clear it is eager to keep Malaysia as a magnet for foreign investments.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has travelled to several countries to promote Malaysia as an investment destination, including to China in April and recently, as well as to the ongoing 78th United Nations General Assembly in New York, following the Invest Malaysia New York event in The Big Apple.

On the other hand – while Anwar has been busy making stops worldwide to foster economic ties on behalf of the country – the official numbers from the Statistics Department showed that for the first half of 2023 (1H23), foreign direct investment (FDIs) into Malaysia amounted to RM15.1bil, only a third of the funds that came in at the same time last year.

For the whole of 2022, Malaysia had managed to garner RM74.6bil of FDIs, which plainly means that it would be a mountain to climb for the country to match that number this year.

For many analysts, the apparent political ambiguity before the six-state elections back in August had played a role in discouraging foreigners to commit their funds to Malaysia, and with that having been resolved, they are looking forward with more optimism.

According to Nixon Wong, chief investment officer for Kuala Lumpur-based fund management firm Tradeview Capital, the year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in FDIs for 1H23 was also due to the strengthening of the US dollar, which capped FDI inflows, on top of the uncertainties before the state elections.

However, he believes the tide could be changing, with major global players such as Germany’s Infineon Technologies AG as well as Intel Corp, Amazon Web Services and Tesla Inc of the United States having set up shop in the country or pledged to commit further investments.

Moving forward, he told StarBiz: “I believe with the initiatives on green energy generation and increasing adoption of environmental, social and governance (ESG) principles in doing business could attract more FDIs our business environment becomes a better match to the ESG criteria these global players are looking into.

“Also, momentum could be built by taking advantage of trade diversions due to uncertain geopolitical tensions that include the United States-China trade conflict and the Russia-Ukraine crisis.”

At the same time, Rakuten Trade head of equity sales Vincent Lau is similarly expecting “more FDI good news” towards the end of the year and into 2024.

“Of course, there were also other factors for the y-o-y pullback (in FDIs into the country) such as the high interest rates environment globally, but there is a sense of relief now that politically the country is stable. This, coupled with the aggressive efforts of the Prime Minister, means things should improve from here,” he predicted.

Having said that, Lau believes the upcoming tabling of Budget 2024 would be essential to clarify Putrajaya’s policies on many issues, including how it intends to further encourage and more importantly ease the entrance of FDIs into the country.

Besides that, he noted that the targeted subsidy reforms and the possible amendments on the government’s tax base could also set the tone for FDIs if further details could be ironed out next month.

While recognising it may be a big ask for Malaysia to surpass the RM74.6bil FDI amount of 2022 for this year, Lau is hopeful of the situation over the longer term as the government has been active in its efforts in attracting investments.

“This can also be seen by Bursa Malaysia organising its first physical Invest Malaysia New York in six years last week, which is part of a push for investments for the Madani Economy initiatives,” he told StarBiz.

Offering his views from an economical perspective, Centre for Market Education (CME) chief executive Dr Carmelo Ferlito opined that FDI quarterly volatility has been a consistent trend over the long term, and therefore should not set off any alarm bells yet.

In addition, he said the 2022 FDI data is likely to have been boosted by the post-lockdown recovery that the country experienced last year, an effect that is quickly fading.

While the news has been flushed with reports of FDIs being granted approvals since the start of year, such as the RM170bil commitment by China and RM23bil pledge by Japan that was announced in July, Ferlito suggested it may be more meaningful to look at implemented FDI’s instead of just approved ones.

He said that back in April, the CME has backed a call by former second finance minister Datuk Seri Johari Abdul Ghani for the setting up of a special committee under the International Trade and Industry Ministry to monitor investments in Malaysia.

“The commission would have had to monitor not only the inflow of FDIs and the approvals, but also how many get implemented, as well as the reason why some of them are not implemented and so on. It was a good proposal, and we think it deserves to regain interest,” he says.

With Anwar having called for the cutting down on red tape and striving to improve the ease of doing business, Ferlito said the Prime Minister is aware there are issues for foreign businesses to enter the country which are related with institutional arrangements.

As such, he has urged Anwar to take the lead in creating a reform process to achieve those goals of reducing red tape and increasing the ease of doing business, as advocated in the Prime Minister’s Ekonomi Madani speech.

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How China’s slowdown may spill over to Malaysia

China’s slowdown is a key risk for the world economy, commodities and energy markets as well as the semiconductor industry. — Bloomberg

CHINA’S stuttering economic recovery post-Covid-19 pandemic reopening has stirred concerns that a protracted deep economic slowdown will have global repercussions, given its interconnectedness with each and every economy in this globalised world and transmission to both emerging and developed countries through different channels.

A slowing China economy is a bane for the world economy. While the global economy continues to gradually recover in 2023, the growth remains weak and low by historical standards, and the balance of risk remains tilted to the downside. It is not out of the woods yet.

Global manufacturing and services activities are losing momentum. Global trade, especially exports, remain in the doldrums, weighed down by weak consumer and business spending amid a continued inventory adjustment in the semiconductor sector.

Prices of commodities and energy have also softened. Global monetary tightening has started to weigh down on activity, credit demand, households and firms’ financial burden, putting pressure on the real estate market.

A slew of disappointing economic data for two consecutive months (June and July) from China indicated that the world’s second-largest economy (17.8% of the world’s gross domestic product or GDP) is indeed losing steam.

Falling exports, weak consumer spending, slowing growth in fixed investment and continued concerns about the property sector have dampened the recovery.

The emergence of deflation concerns adds to the complexity of China’s flagging recovery.

The Chinese government has provided a range of strategic measures aimed at targeting specific sectors.

These range from consumption (spending on new energy vehicles, home appliances, electronics, catering and tourism) to the property sector (reducing down-payment ratios for first-time homebuyers, lowering mortgage rates and easing purchase restrictions for buying a second house) and tax relief measures to support small businesses, tech startups and rural households.

China’s slowdown is a key risk for the world economy, commodities and energy markets as well as the semiconductor industry.

Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, China was the world’s most important source of international travellers, accounting for 20% of total spending in international tourism (US$255bil overseas and making 166 million overseas trips in 2019).

We consider three channels through which China’s slowdown can have spillover effects on Malaysia via direct and indirect transmissions: trade and commodity prices, services and financial markets.

Overall, the estimated impact of a 1% decline in China’s GDP growth could impact about 0.5% points on Malaysia’s economic growth.

Trade is the most important channel as China has been Malaysia’s largest trading partner since 2009, with a total trade share of 16.8% (exports share: 13.1%; imports share: 21.2%) in the first half of 2023 (1H23).

Spillovers from slower China demand and commodity prices are negative for Malaysia, a net commodity exporter.

After recording seven successive years of increases in exports to China since 2017, Malaysia’s exports to China declined by 8.8% in 1H23.

In sectors such as tourism, China’s tourists are one of the major foreign tourists in Malaysia. In the first five months of 2023, Chinese tourists totalled 403,121 persons or 5.4% of total international tourists in Malaysia, and was only 12.9% of 3.1 million persons in 2019.

According to the Malaysia Inbound Tourism Association, though the number of Chinese tour groups coming to Malaysia has increased in July and August to between 800 and 1,000 for the summer vacation, the number of tourists per group is smaller between 10 and 20 persons.

While direct financial links between China and Malaysia are limited, there will be indirect spillovers through spikes in global financial volatility as investors worry that China’s deep economic slowdown would temper global growth, and also has spillovers to the US economy.

Will China foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Malaysia slow?

Capital movements will be influenced by the inter-linking of factors such as economic growth and investment prospects in the host country (Malaysia).

These include stable political conditions and good economic and financial management as well as conducive investment policies.

The US-China trade war and rising trends of geoeconomic fragmentation have witnessed FDI flows among geopolitically aligned economies that are closer geographically as well as geopolitical preferences.

Throughout the period 2015-2022, China’s gross FDI inflows into Malaysia averaged RM7.5bil per year. Even during the Covid-19 pandemic, China’s economic slowdown did not deter the inflows of FDI into Malaysia (RM7.8bil in 2020; RM8.1bil in 2021; and RM9.8bil in 2022).

In 1H23, China’s gross FDI inflows increased by 25.2% to RM2.1bil though it is likely that the full-year FDI will be below the average FDI inflows of RM8.6bil per year in 2020 to 2022.

China was the largest foreign investor in Malaysia’s manufacturing sector in 2016 to 2022 before dropping to second position in 2022 and the fourth position in 2021.

There was a contrasting picture when it comes to China’s approved investment in the manufacturing sector, which saw two consecutive years of decline (2022: 42.5% to RM9.6bil and 2021: 6.5% to RM16.6bil) and declining further by 17.8% to RM4.3bil in the first quarter of 2023.

We believe that Malaysia will remain one of the preferred investment destinations to China, given both countries’ strong established friendship and bilateral ties in trade and investment as well as people-to-people movements.

Malaysia needs to enhance its investment climate with progressive policies to rival regional peers to offer the country as a China Plus One destination for China and foreign companies.

Malaysia can offer investments to build a chip-testing and packaging factory, advanced manufacturing technologies such as robotics and automation, manufacturing electric vehicle supply chain, petrochemicals, renewable energy, agriculture and food processing.

China can offer the technology, innovation and technical know-how as well as talent that deepen the country’s industry integration with global supply chains and also links Malaysia and China to South-East Asia.

China can invest in Malaysian manufacturing companies to help them adopt advanced manufacturing technologies and further improve their competitiveness.

The RM170bil prospective investments (comprising RM69.7bil from 19 memoranda of understanding and RM100.3bil from the round-table meeting) concluded during the prime minister’s visit to China are set to provide a massive investment boost to our economy for years to come.

Among these are China’s Rongsheng Petrochemical Holdings, which will invest RM80bil to build a petrochemical park in Pengerang, Johor; and investment from Geely, with an initial investment of RM2bil in the Tanjung Malim Automotive Valley, which will gradually increase to RM23bil in the future.

 LEE HENG GUIE is Socio-Economic Research Centre executive director. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.

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INTERACTIVE: Journey to Merdeka

China, the largest in Asia and the world's top recipient of FDI set to be net investor

Asia the world's top recipient of FDI 

KUALA LUMPUR: Amid scratchy global economic growth, Asia accounts for nearly 30% of global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, making it the world’s top recipient of FDI.

Generally, developing countries were attracting more FDI than developed economies, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) World Investment Report 2014, which said total inflows to developing Asia (excluding West Asia) amounted to US$382bil last year, 4% higher than the previous year.

In the last two years, top 10 recipients of FDI flows in developing Asia were China, Hong Kong, Singapore, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan.

China took the lead with an estimated FDI outflow of US$101bil last year, spurred by mega-deals such as the US$15bil takeover of Canadian oil and gas company Nexen by China state-owned entity CNOOC Ltd as well as the US$5bil Shuanghui-Smithfield acquisition in the food industry.

South-East Asia registered slower growth, however, with inflows to the region rising just 7% to US$125bil in 2013, compared to the rapid growth in the regional grouping – from US$47bil in 2009 to US$118bil in 2012.

The report said Singapore was the largest FDI recipient in the region, with new mega-deals driving the figure to a record high of US$64bil.

Indonesia showed stable performance, while Thailand’s inflows grew to US$13bil although many projects were shelved due to political instability.

“At today’s level of investment in SDG-related sectors in developing countries – both public and private – we still face, according to Unctad’s estimates, an average annual funding shortfall of some US$2.5 trillion over the next 15 years following the end of the Millennium Development Goals,” UNDP resident representative for Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei Michelle Gyles-McDonnough said at the launch of the report at the Malaysian Investment Develop-ment Authority headquarters.

She highlighted the important linkages between trade and investment, amplifying the need for sustainable development.

-Contributed by Cheryl Pod,The Star/Asia News Network

China's outward investment to soon exceed FDI, set to be net investor

Outward flows likely to exceed FDI in nation this year, UN report says

China's outward investment is very likely to exceed foreign direct investment inflows this year, making the country a net investor, according to officials at a United Nations body.

This "inevitable trend" will have "great significance in reshaping the economic structure and long-term development" of the world's second-largest economy, they said.

In 2013, China's foreign direct investment rose by 2.3 percent year-on-year to $123.9 billion, ranking second in the world after the United States, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development's World Investment Report on Tuesday.

"China remained the recipient of the second-largest flows in the world. Meanwhile, the quality of FDI inflows improved, with more into high-end manufacturing and services with high added value," said Zhan Xiaoning, director of the Investment and Enterprise Division at UNCTAD.

"What's more, China's outward investment is more striking," Zhan said.

In 2013, investment outflows from China increased by 15 percent year-on-year to $101 billion, the third highest in the world after the United States and Japan, the report said.

As China continues to deregulate outbound investment, outflows to developed and developing countries are expected to grow further, it said.

Zhan said, "China's economic landscape, driven by exports and foreign investment in the past three decades, will change significantly. Outward investment will serve as an important driver for industrial upgrading and economic growth."

Liang Guoyong, an economic affairs officer at UNCTAD, said, "It is very hard to predict when China will become a net investor, but the trend is inevitable."

The process will accelerate along with the nation's fast economic growth, the increase in Chinese companies' competitiveness and the amount of resources and market share they gain, Liang said.

The change will lead to a more effective allocation of financial resources for the Chinese economy, as the country holds the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, Liang added.

Huo Jianguo, president of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, a Ministry of Commerce think tank, said China's new role as a net investor will help ease trade frictions.

"The rapid increase in overseas investment by Chinese enterprises is very likely to transform the trade landscape, because profits from the overseas market will lessen the country's reliance on exports, reducing trade frictions and pressure from swelling foreign exchange reserves," Huo said.

Contributed by By Li Jiabao and Mu Chen (China Daily)

Outflows from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) rose five percent, with Singapore leading the pack at $27 billion, more than double in 2012. The Philippines' FDI outflows last year fell to $3.6 billion from $4.2 in 2012.



However, the Philippines is nowhere in the top 10 recipients of foreign inflows in Asia amid the slowdown in FDI in Asean compared with the rapid growth in the past 3 years -- from $47 billion in 2009 to $118 billion in 2012.

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An American-Made Business Model Has Less Success Overseas

For years, the titans of finance have held out the promise that they could export their business model overseas and mint billions in the process. Yet, there are increasing signs that global deal-making was always a myth.

If you’ve been anywhere near a Wall Street conference in the last five years, you know the drill. Deal makers bemoan the United States as a mature and overregulated economy. They talk about heading abroad, as emerging market economies leave us far behind. To listen to them, one might think the rest of the world was a paradise out of “Atlas Shrugged,” where capital flows and where private equity, investment banks and other investors can freely seek opportunities.

So what country is No. 1 in initial public offerings so far this year? Yes, it is the United States, according to Renaissance Capital, with 75 I.P.O.’s raising $39 billion in total. Compare this activity with China, where 41 I.P.O.’s raised just $8.1 billion.

M&AS

And in mergers and acquisitions? Again, it is the United States, with 53 percent of the worldwide deal volume, up from 51 percent from last year, according to Dealogic. For investment banks, this means that the United States has a 46 percent share of the $63 billion in worldwide investment banking revenue, up from 34.6 percent in 2009.

With the slowdown in once-hot emerging markets, the tide is going out, baring all of the problems and issues associated with global deal-making.

China is a prime example. Huge amounts of foreign and state investment produced an economic miracle. And in that time, wealth was there to be had.

But let’s be clear about where that wealth came from. In the United States, deal makers make money primarily by buying underperforming assets, adding some financial wizardry and riding any improvements in the stock market. Sometimes, they get lucky by making a quick profit, but often private equity works to squeeze out inefficiencies and make operating improvements in companies and then takes them public a few years later.

China's situation

In China, what increasingly appears to have been a stock market and asset bubble spurred by hundreds of billions in direct investment has created some spectacular early profits for deal makers. The private equity firm Carlyle Group, for example, has made an estimated $4.4 billion on an investment in China Pacific Insurance, which it took public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

But now, with the Chinese I.P.O. market at a virtual standstill and the Shanghai market down more than 30 percent from its high last year, that avenue to riches is over. People are starting to say that investment in China resembles a “No Exit” sign.

Deal makers are left with a back-to-basics approach that looks to make money from companies through economic growth or improving their performance. Yet most of these investments are made with state actors and minority positions, meaning that there may be little opportunity to actually do anything more than sit and wait and hope. And you know what they say about hope as a strategy.

It appears that deal makers are starting to realize the problem. Foreign direct investment in China was down 3.67 percent from last year to $9.6 billion, and it is likely to remain on a downward trend.

And China has been among the friendliest places for deal makers. Other emerging markets have been less accommodating. Take India, which has been criticized for excessive regulation, high taxes and ownership prohibitions. David Bonderman, the head of the private equity giant TPG Capital, recently said that “we stay away from places that have impossible governments and impossible tax regimes, which means sayonara to India.”

Foreign issues

The comment about India highlights another problem with foreign deal-making: it’s foreign. Sometimes, the political winds change and local governments that initially welcomed investment change their minds.

South Korea, for example, invited foreign capital to invest in its battered financial sector after the Asian currency crisis. But when Lone Star Investments was about to reap billions in profits on an investment in Korea Exchange Bank, a legal battle almost a decade long erupted as Korean government officials accused the fund of vulture investing.

And the political problems are sometimes not directed at foreign investors. South Africa, for example, is undergoing the kind of political turmoil that can stop all foreign investment in its tracks over treatment of its workers and continuing income inequality. Things are not much better in the more mature economies.

Economic doldrums

Europe is in the economic doldrums, and its governments are increasingly protectionist of both jobs and industry. France, for example, recently threatened to nationalize a factory owned by ArcelorMittal, which sought to shut down two furnaces.

The national minister said the company was “not welcome.” It’s hard to see a deal maker profiting from buying an inefficient enterprise that it can’t clean up without risking national censure.

Buying at a low is the lifeblood of any investment strategy — but this assumes that there will be an uptick, and on the Continent, that is uncertain given the state of Greece and the other indebted economies in Southern Europe.

This is all a far cry from the oratory vision-making at conferences. Now that the global gold rush has ended, the belief that the American way of doing deals is portable is being upended.

Fragmented world

We are left with a fragmented world where capital moves not so freely, the problems of politics and regulation are more prominent and investing in emerging markets becomes what it always has been: the province of more specialized investors who are in tune with the political and regulatory requirements. Regardless, the easy riches that many thought these countries would bring are now far out of sight.

And the winner in all of this is likely to be the much-maligned United States, where the economic conditions and regulatory environment first gave birth to these deal makers.

This is not to say that there will still not be global deal-making or that American multinationals will not continue to expand abroad. Of course, there will still be profits in deals overseas. But the vision that deal-making will instantly and seamlessly go global is increasingly exposed as one that was more a fairy tale than reality.- IHT/NYT

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Steven M. Davidoff, a professor at the Michael E. Moritz College of Law at Ohio State University, is the author of “Gods at War: Shotgun Takeovers, Government by Deal and the Private Equity Implosion.” E-mail: dealprof@nytimes.com | Twitter: @StevenDavidoff