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Saturday, August 1, 2020

Global de-dollarisation fast underway; US Printed More Money in One Month Than in Two Centuries, US$ is fast becoming Banana Currency

Changing trend: Looking from the perspective of the US debt, the 22 consecutive months from April 2018 to March 2020 saw global central banks reduce their US debt holdings.



A global trend toward “de-dollarisation” has already begun. The last piece of “load-bearing wall” of the “US Empire State Building” has cracked, in other words.

Global policies for “de-dollarisation” include sharply reducing US debt holdings, dropping US dollar’s status as an anchor currency, increasing non-dollar bulk commodity trade, growing the reserve of non-dollar currencies and ramping up gold’s hedge against the dollar.

Looking from the perspective of the US debt, the 22 consecutive months from April 2018 to March 2020 saw global central banks reduce their US debt holdings.

In March, the US Federal Reserve pledged unlimited quantitative easing, purchasing over US$1 trillion Treasuries within a month.

The Federal Reserve has become the largest receiver of US Treasuries.

In the same month, yields on both one-month and three-month Treasury bills were negative, while the yield for the 10-year Treasury hit below 1% for the first time, according to media reports.

This exemplifies global anticipation of a weaker US economy.

Although the possibility that a small number of foreign investors will increase their holdings of US Treasuries in the short run cannot be ruled out, in the long run international investors will likely reduce their US debt holdings.

The Federal Reserve, which has spent over half a century building up its global credibility, has become the last ditch of US Treasuries.

In recent years, many G20 members such as China, France, Germany, and Russia have reduced their use of the US dollars in trade deals.

According to information disclosed by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), the share of US dollars in the international payment market in May was 40.88%, a drop from 44.1% in March.

While the market estimates there is still a long way to realise “de-dollarisation”, some countries are becoming restless to achieve it.

The SWIFT system, which has been traditionally used for trade clearance and payments, and which is overwhelmingly controlled by the United States, has been widely criticised across the world.

Many countries are striving to construct de-dollarising payment systems. For example, China launched the Cross-border Interbank Payment System in 2015.

It is very likely that the share of US dollars in international payment systems will drop to below 40%.

The share of the US dollar in total foreign exchange reserves of all IMF member countries has fallen from 72% in 2000 to 61.99% at the end of the first quarter in 2020.Although the US dollar’s share of foreign exchange reserves still ranks first worldwide, its decline in recent years is quite obvious.

Countries are determined to diversify their foreign exchange reserves.

It can be seen that central banks of many countries have increased their gold reserves, and the year 2019 marked the 10th consecutive year of annual net purchases of gold.

To offset risks brought by US dollars, the US share in global gold reserves fell from 23.64% at the end of June 2019 to 15.5% at the end of June 2020.

This reflects the weakening of trust in the US dollar by many countries.

It is conceivable that the US sanctioning against China due to the country’s national security legislation for Hong Kong will further accelerate most countries’ “de-dollarisation” programmes.

In addition to US Treasuries, payments as well as foreign reserves, digital currency and the Covid-19 pandemic are the latest factors that trigger the hastening of the “de-dollarisation” progress.

Digital currency seeks a comprehensive replacement of the US dollar as the primary international currency in terms of issuance, technology and tools.

Major economies including China, the EU, and Japan, plus many multinational corporations, have conducted long-term digital currency research.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, many doubters of “de-dollarisation” have been holding that global “de-dollarisation” is still in its infancy.

They feel markets are very dependent on the US dollar. But the Covid-19 pandemic seems to have triggered a faster “de-dollarisation” progress.

In view if the various diplomatic considerations and the market’s expectations for the US dollar, one can conclude that the United States can never form a strategic containment circle against China.

China is confident of this.

By Wang Wen,The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, and executive director of China-US People-to-People Exchange Research Centre. His latest book is Great Power’s Long March Road.wangwen2013@ruc.edu.cn. Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies is a private think tank set up by Qiu Guogen, an alumni of Renmin University and chairman of Shanghai Chongyang Investment Group Co Ltd.


US Printed More Money in One Month Than in Two Centuries

The Federal Reserve’s money printer has cranked up to ridiculous levels — but will it really lead to inflation?


In a letter to investors released on July 29, Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead noted that the United States has printed a shocking amount of money to combat the pandemic-induced financial crisis.

“The United States printed more money in June than in the first two centuries after its founding,” Morehead wrote. “Last month the U.S. budget deficit — $864 billion — was larger than the total debt incurred from 1776 through the end of 1979.”

Morehead made it clear that Pantera Capital sees Bitcoin as the solution for the current crisis. He also contrasted the effects of money printing in recent months, to how the equivalent amount of currency had performed across centuries:

With that first trillion [USD printed] we defeated British imperialists, bought Alaska and the Louisiana Purchase, defeated fascism, ended the Great Depression, built the Interstate Highway System, and went to the Moon.”

Morehead cited the resulting inflation as the main reason one should “get out of paper money and into Bitcoin.” According to the CEO, “there is no need for inflation-adjusted numbers [with Bitcoin] because there is no inflation/hyper-inflation.”

Going to zero


Goldbug Peter Schiff is also concerned about the effects of money printing. He noted comments by the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who said this week that the Fed was using its “full range of tools” to respond to the pandemic: printing money, keeping interest rates close to zero, and making asset purchases steady at $120 billion per month.

“The U.S. is about to experience one of the greatest inflationary periods in world history,” Schiff said on Twitter. “Any credibility the Fed has left will be lost. Federal Reserve Notes soon won't be worth a Continental.” (Continental paper money in the U.S. was at one time exchanged for treasury bonds at 1% of its face value.)

Inflated prices as well?

Despite widespread fears over inflation, many experts predict consumer prices will actually go into a period of deflation — and that’s exactly what’s happened in Australia this week where ABC News reported that consumer prices in the country actually dropped 1.9% in June. It’s a record for deflation since the Korean War.

However many pundits believe the inflation is actually hidden in asset prices, rather than consumer prices, and that money printing has underpinned the share market rally in the midst of the pandemic.

Pantera Capital revealed its simple investment strategy for riding out the pandemic:

“Stay long crypto until schools/daycare open. Until then the economy won’t function and money will be continuously printed.”



Related:


Bloomberg: Americans Trade Depreciating Dollars For Bitcoin


Bloomberg: Americans Trade Depreciating Dollars For Bitcoin


Bitcoin Price Hits 2020 High at $11.5K as Traders Say 'Bull ...



Mandatory face masks on Aug 1,2020 is for crowded public places

 
https://youtu.be/OuiTTRdtQyE


Today is the day to mask up

 

Health DG: Mandatory face masks on Aug 1 is for crowded public places



What kind of face mask best protects against coronavirus?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/30/what-kind-of-face-mask-best-protects-against-coronavirus-covid-19

- Which One? Know the various Face Mask in the market by Dr Gigi Han

https://youtu.be/kUpK7YwhzWs


How to buy face masks, according to medical experts



So you want to wear a face mask? Good call.

A growing body of evidence supports the idea that wearing face masks in public, even when you feel well, can help curb the spread of the coronavirus — since people can spread the virus even without showing symptoms. That's the main reason to wear a mask: to protect other people from you.
Face masks can also offer the wearer some protection — though how much varies greatly, depending on the type of mask. No mask will offer full protection, and they should not be viewed as a replacement for physical distancing of at least 6 feet from others, frequent hand-washing and avoiding crowds. When you combine masks with those measures, they can make a big difference.
But what kind of mask is best?
When choosing a mask, experts say focus on the fabric, fit and breathability. How well a mask protects is a function of both what it's made of and how well it seals to your face. But if you can't breathe well through it, then you're less likely to keep it on.

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Dirty hands are a sign of clean money




https://youtu.be/0XExSHFkOgw

Image may contain: coffee cup and drink, text that says "IT''s A TO GREAT BiG SOMETHING START DAY"

Dirty hands are the sign of honest, though not necessarily clean, work and labor and thus the income from such work is what we could call clean money. .

A person working with his or her hands, generally, has signs of this ingrained in skin of their hands and it is those people that we should value more than those who have highly manicured hands, whether female or male, who thus, more than likely, have never done an honest day's work.

But society values the latter more than the former, unfortunately, and we can see where that has led us, I am sure. Not only does society value the clean hands, as in no physical dirt on them, but also those that make vast sums of money, which those that do an honest day's work getting their hands dirty, do not.

The worker is the backbone of society for without him or her nothing would get produced, no streets cleaned, no parks and public spaces maintained, no food produced and no wood. The majority of office staff, civil servants, bankers and such like we could well do without, but we cannot do without the worker, the farmer and the forester. Neither, I know, can we do without doctors and nurses, and the cleaners in hospitals. Nor without the carers for the elderly and the sick. But most of those would fall under the term of worker anyway and thus are covered.

The disgrace is that those who toil hard with their hands and do the real work are those that get the lowest share in remuneration from their labors while those who do not do a single stroke of work are the ones who get all the rewards, which really are not due to them.

There are schools, nowadays, and I guess they have always been, who teach the kids that they should not aspire to the “low” jobs of working with their hands with terms such as “you are better than that”, or “we”, referring in that case to the entire school, “we are better than that”. I wonder what they think would happen if there would be not refuse workers, no street cleaners, and such like. For one they would be drowning in their own garbage that they create on a daily basis, not to think about the other things that would not happen would those workers not be there.

by Michael Smith (Veshengro)


Thursday, July 30, 2020

Three-month loan moratorium extension for those in need

https://youtu.be/wT4fZ9IcR6c

https://youtu.be/nzqy79-m8Z0



Extension for those in need | The Star


Rapt attention: Laundrette worker Amira Wahida Osman watching the Prime Minister deliver the special announcement on the loan moratorium in Putrajaya. — MOHD SAHAR MISNI/The Star

The move is expected to benefit some three million individuals and businesses


KUALA LUMPUR (July 29): Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin today announced that banks will offer a three-month loan moratorium extension and assistance to targeted groups in view of the current tough economic times.

The move is expected to benefit some three million individuals and businesses, particularly those who suffer pay cuts and are unemployed due to the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Muhyiddin, who had a live televised speech this afternoon.

Muhyiddin said the decision was made following a discussion with the finance minister and Bank Negara Malaysia on further measures to help borrowers that still need assistance when the six-month moratorium ends on Sept 30.

The Covid-19 lockdown measures enforced over the last few months have presented an unprecedented challenge for small businesses in Malaysia.

The blanket six-month moratorium was granted by banks in April.

"Individuals who have lost their jobs in 2020 and remain jobless are eligible for the targeted moratorium extension of three months. After three months, the moratorium could be extended further at the banks' discretion depending on the borrowers' situations.

"Those who are employed but have had their salaries reduced due to Covid-19 pandemic will be granted lower loan instalments in tandem, depending on the types of borrowings. For example, for home or personal loans, the monthly instalments will be reduced at the same rate as the salary reductions.

"This assistance is for a period of at least six months and an extension can be given subject to the current salary situations of the individuals concerned," Muhyiddin added.

Apart from the two groups, Muhyiddin said other affected borrowers including traders, hawkers, self-employed individuals and businesses could also make similar arrangements with their banks.

Banks, according to him, have expressed their commitments to helping all borrowers, both individuals and small and medium enterprises, who are affected by Covid-19 outbreak.

Muhyiddin revealed that banks may allow borrowers to make interest payments only for a period of time on a case-by-case basis.

Other options are to extend the loan tenures to reduce monthly repayments or provide other reliefs until the borrowers' financial positions are more stable.

"For hire purchase borrowers in need of assistance, financial institutions will offer appropriate instalment scheduling subject to the Hire Purchase Act. This includes extending the repayment period with a lower instalment amount," Muhyiddin said, adding that eligible borrowers can contact their respective banks to make an application starting from Aug 7. Economists laud move to extend moratorium for targeted groups

MIDF Research economist Mazlina Abdul Rahman said the extension of the loan moratorium for targeted groups is a better option than to continue providing the moratorium on a blanket approach.

"It is because there could be many borrowers who are opting for moratorium not because they are in financial distress but simply [because they] want to use the opportunity to preserve capital or for investment purposes," she said when contacted.

Her sentiment was echoed by Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd banking analyst Chan Jit Hoong, who said the quantum of new modification loss should be lower than the blanket automatic deferment as it is aimed at a smaller audience.

This initiative, he said, did not come as a surprise and is consistent with what banks have been mulling to do after the current six-month moratorium ends on Sept 30.

"We believe it is a more sustainable method to help the rakyat and also, restrain non-performing loans (NPLs) from ballooning out of control over the short term. However, it may hide actual damage and cause lag in NPL formation if the situation does not improve rapidly or an advent of [second-wave Covid-19] paralyses the country again," he said.

Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said the moratorium extension shows that the government is trying to strike a delicate balance between supporting the need of the affected groups and the health of banks' finances, which is also crucial to the Malaysian economy.

"It's going to be targeted and that is very reassuring and therefore, limited resources are not going to be wasted. What is more important now is to encourage borrowers who have lost their jobs or who have been experiencing reductions in their current pay and perhaps, those who have faced financial difficulties to come forward and have a frank discussion about their states of finance with the banks," he said.

Read also:

BNM: Borrowers eligible for loan repayment flexibility must apply by Aug 7
Economists laud move to extend moratorium for targeted groups
FMM hails targeted loan moratorium extension, reiterates call for more assistance to businesses




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RM525mil investment for Penang to create 1,600 jobs & human capital programme

( From left) Chow looking at the Penang NCER human capital graphic info. With him are John, state executive councillor Datuk Abdul Halim . 

Wednesday, July 29, 2020

RM525mil investment for Penang to create 1,600 jobs & human capital programme

(From left) Chow looking at the Penang NCER human capital graphic info. With him are John, state executive councillor Datuk Abdul Halim Hussain and state secretary Datuk Abdul Razak Jaafar.

SIX companies will inject a total of RM525.3mil into Penang’s economy through the Northern Corridor Implementation Authority (NCIA), said Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow.

The investment, under the second phase of the EmpowerNCER human capital development programme, would create 1,600 jobs, especially for those affected by Covid-19 pandemic.

“The investment will help cushion the effect of the pandemic and also complement the state’s efforts in creating new jobs,” Chow said after meeting the investors in Komtar on Thursday.

The six companies are PTS Industries Sdn Bhd (RM2mil), Clarive Analytics Malaysia Sdn Bhd (RM159mil), Iconic Penang Sdn Bhd (RM150mil), Osram Opto Semiconductors Sdn Bhd (RM110.07mil), UWHM Sdn Bhd (RM65.5mil) and Coraza Systems Malaysia Sdn Bhd (RM38.73mil).

At the event, Chow also gave appointment letters to four district officers to implement the Empower-NCER programme in their districts.

Asked if the state had taken into account all the factors which could affect the investment climate during the pandemic, Chow said the investments by the six companies were testimony that new investments were still flowing into the state.

“Even in the state Task Force Committee today, NCIA’S figures show a lower investment figure since the outbreak of the pandemic, but we expect a gradual increase in investments over a period of time,” he said.

NCIA chief executive officer Datuk Seri Jebasingam Issace John said besides fulfilling the needs of the industrial sector, the manpower in Penang must be equipped with the skills and know-how under the new economic norm post-Covid 19.

“The human capital programmes are to ensure that the manpower has the resilience to compete and make themselves relevant in the various business environments which have become more challenging at present times.

“The expected improvement could be seen between 18 and 24 months from now and we expect all to return to normal by 2025,” he said.

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