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Friday, August 4, 2023

Malaysia needs better infrastruchure

 


Matsuda said one way Malaysia can become more resilient in times of trouble is to ensure equal basic infrastructure for all, which includes efficiency in government assistance as well as making information more accessible.


“There is definitely room for improvement in terms of transparency and the dissemination of cash transfers. The cash transfers were a good idea but leakages and wastage did take place,”

- Yasuhiko Matsuda


Digital divide results in poor people having no access to government assistance during Covid-19

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia needs a stronger infrastructure in place in order to mitigate any future crises that may arise and impacting its people and economy, says World Bank country manager for Malaysia, Yasuhiko Matsuda.

Matsuda said while the majority of people suffered during the Covid-19 pandemic, smaller businesses and vulnerable households were impacted more, partly because they had little or no access to government assistance.

“One main reason was because of the digital divide. Poorer people had no Internet and so they didn’t have the information they needed to apply for these forms of assistance,” he said.

He was speaking to reporters during the “Building Malaysia’s Resilience, Lessons from Covid-19 Economic Impact and Policy Responses” conference by the World Bank Group yesterday.

Although nearly 80% of low-income households (monthly earnings of RM2,000 and below) received government assistance, about one-fourth of them did not have access to cash assistance.

More than one-third of households earning more than RM10,000 received the cash assistance.

According to Matsuda, one way Malaysia can become more resilient in times of trouble is to ensure equal basic infrastructure for all, which includes efficiency in government assistance as well as making information more accessible.

“There is definitely room for improvement in terms of transparency and the dissemination of cash transfers. The cash transfers were a good idea but leakages and wastage did take place,” he said.

Matsuda said one challenge that arose in terms of the cash assistance benefit was that while the government managed to cover a somewhat large population, it only managed to give each family a small amount.

He said despite the good intentions, the impact was rendered limited and this showed in the surveys done post-pandemic.

“Moving forward, the government can look at maybe a lesser number of families but provide them with a higher amount of assistance so it is more impactful,” he said.

For the middle class, the government can look into areas of employment or provide people with a mix of different things to try out, especially in this era of digitilisation, he said.

He added that the Madani Economy framework announced this year by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim covers these aspects as the government pledges to work towards realising them.

“A strong economy must go alongside a strong fiscal capacity. Now the key will be how it is implemented,” he noted.

Similarly, World Bank senior economist Ririn Purnamasari said the reality of the “caring effect” of the pandemic recorded some struggling to catch up despite Malaysia’s economy being revived.

“We risk widening the equality gap now and in the future, and as we’ve seen in the report, some sold their assets as a coping method which were meant to generate income,” she said.

The other strategies that could be scarring for people included decreasing essential food expenditure, borrowing from friends and family, and taking children out of school.

While not so evident in Malaysia, it was recorded in countries like Cambodia and the Philippines.

Additionally, Purnamasari said Malaysia needs to be aware of its fiscal capacity and resources, and how it can best help those that need it, while strengthening the economy together.

On top of that, the government should continue collaborating with other relevant bodies to offer labour market programmes for the community.

“One way we will see people moving forward is by upskilling and reskilling them. This will empower them and give them the ability to participate in different fields so it becomes more sustainable for them,” Purnamasari said.

Currently, Malaysia’s labour market is relatively underdeveloped with limited accessibility for workers in the informal sector.

“Integration of programmes across ministries and agencies and increased shock responsiveness can strengthen labour market policies.

“Hiring incentives should be balanced with well-designed training programmes to address skills mismatches,” she said.

Meanwhile, World Bank Group in its latest report noted that Malaysia emerged as a country with strong resilience and plenty of potential for recovery from the pandemic.

The six other countries surveyed for this report included Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Mongolia, Cambodia and the Philippines.

Notably, Malaysia’s diversified exports and strong trade sector contributed to its economic resilience during the pandemic-induced recession.

“Malaysia’s favourable business environment, ranked highest among the six countries studied according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index, enabled Malaysian firms to effectively navigate disruptions caused by the pandemic and capitalise on opportunities during the recovery,” the report said.

Among the key takeaways from the report was that the younger, less-educated and informal workers were more negatively affected than the white-collared professionals.

“Self-employed workers or those working for family businesses were more likely than wage workers to experience work stoppages and income loss.

“However, the survey showed businesses that were shedding workers became less productive,” the report said.

Women were also reportedly more susceptible to losing their jobs than men, especially those with a lower income, lower education and who were younger.

The report also showed that digitilisation became the go-to once the pandemic hit and movements were heavily restricted.

“The acceleration of technology adoption created an opportunity for firms and workers to be more productive.

“However, the digital divide was apparent in poorer regions with a lower share of workers working from home,” it said.

Lastly, the report said Malaysia had relied heavily on support to businesses in the form of liquidity, credit and lending below-the-line measures as opposed to providing direct support to households.

While countries like Cambodia, Mongolia and Indonesia recorded higher support for households, Malaysia saw a more thorough level of support for businesses.

“The support to businesses appeared to be more biased towards more productive and larger firms. While the support to households was pro-poor, it was not as responsive to shocks,” it said.

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  • Lee said interest rates may stay elevated for some time and expects Bank Negara to hold the OPR at the current level in 2023 and into 2024. ...

New Straits Times
https://www.nst.com.my › news › nation › 2022/01

Higher growth projected for 2023

Lee said interest rates may stay elevated for some time and expects Bank Negara to hold the OPR at the current level in 2023 and into 2024.

The commendable first-quarter showing augurs well, says the Socio-economic Research Centre

'STRUCTURAL REFORMS ARE KEY TO SUPPORTING THE ECONOMY AND RINGGIT' - Lee Heng Lee 

KUALA LUMPUR: The combination of declining exports, persistently high core inflation and cautious consumer spending will likely see the economy experiencing a moderation in growth in the second half of the year (2H23).

Despite anticipating a deceleration in economic growth in the upcoming quarters, Socio-economic Research Centre (SERC) has raised its 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection to 4.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 4.1% previously, to reflect the strength in the first-quarter (1Q23) economic growth.

The GDP expanded by 5.6% in 1Q23, exceeding the 4.8% growth achieved in 1Q22, thanks to sustained domestic demand underpinned by strong private expenditure and improvement in labour market conditions.

SERC executive director Lee Heng Guie said the robust consumer spending witnessed last year may not be replicated this year due to the high interest rate environment and more cautious consumer spending.

“The cash stimulus has already been spent and the spending boom, such as the ‘revenge spending’ that we saw post-pandemic, has already faded,” he said during SERC’S media briefing on the quarterly economic tracker for 2Q23.

Lee pointed out that the country’s exports had also started to ease as global demand weakens under the strain of high inflation and interest rates.

For 1H23, exports contracted by 4.5% y-o-y and Lee projects exports to decline by between 5% and 7% for the full year on the back of lower demand.

With these factors at play, SERC expects GDP to grow in a range of between 4% and 5% in 2H23, with consumer demand continuing to be the key growth driver in the remaining months of the year.

He added the elevated base effect in 2H22 will present another challenge to the 2H23 GDP performance.

On the overnight policy rate (OPR), Lee believes the current rate of 3% is at an “accommodative and supportive” level for sustainable economic activity.

He said interest rates may stay elevated for some time and expects Bank Negara to hold the OPR at the current level in 2023 and into 2024.

“Any change to the OPR is dependent on how resilient the economy is and how consumer inflation behaves.

“I think the current level is just right, (as) it will not significantly hurt the people.

“Structural reforms are key to supporting the economy and the ringgit.” Lee Heng Guie

“It is still supporting the economy, but does not overburden businesses and the people. Even though central banks are likely to end their rate hike cycles, it does not necessarily imply that they will reduce rates either,” he explained.

Lee expects most central banks to likely keep interest rates at current levels till inflation, both headline and core, subsides to a “comfortable range”.

In the majority of advanced economies, a comfortable range of inflation is around 2%, Lee observed. Although headline inflation has eased in Malaysia, Lee stressed the battle against inflation has not been won.

“This is because subsidy rationalisation is still on the table of the government. The government needs to address that following the state elections to control the budget deficit,” Lee noted.

Given the volatility in crude oil prices, Lee said the current oil subsidy scheme was fiscally unsustainable and would further contribute to deficits.

He added the ringgit had strengthened against the currencies of Japan, China, Australia, Taiwan and India since the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) first federal fund rate hike in March last year.

However, against the greenback, the local unit is among a basket of currencies that have experienced a significant weakening after having declined by about 7.4% since the start of the rate hike cycle.

“Structural reforms are key to supporting the economy and the ringgit,” Lee stressed.

He said the proposed progressive wage model (PWM) plan, which is currently under consideration by the government, is a right step towards a productivity-linked wage system which will foster competitiveness by forging a stronger correlation between wages and productivity.

Lee, however, contends that a more comprehensive and practical analysis should be undertaken on the plan by a tripartite body, which includes representatives from the government, employers and employees.

This is due to the presence of valid concerns and areas of uncertainty within the proposal, such as whether the PWM would be extended to foreign workers and specific sectors.

In keeping the economy resilient, Lee emphasised on the importance of private investment.

He reiterated that private investment not only helped stimulate economic growth, but also generated jobs and thus benefiting both the community and the nation as a whole.

Speaking on the US economy, Lee believes that it is still resilient, citing the strength of its labour market and wage growth as indications. However, he said consumer spending remained robust and asserts inflationary pressure.

“In the United States, headline inflation has not reached the targeted 2% level, while core inflation remains sticky.

“This is something the Fed would be observing. If there is risk of inflation resurgence, it may still continue to increase rates,” Lee said.

Globally, Lee pointed out that the purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector has continued its downtrend, sustaining below the 50-point threshold. The services sector, meanwhile, recorded a slight slowdown in its latest figures.

“We are worried the slowdown in the manufacturing sector has broadened and impacted the services sector,” Lee added.

On world trade volume and industrial production, Lee pointed out that both have been moderating, owing to slower demand. “This is why we saw a decline in exports for regional countries, including Malaysia, recently.”

The Star - StarBiz By KIRENNESH NAIR kirennesh@thestar.com.my 3 Aug 2023

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Wednesday, August 2, 2023

IGP: Don’t touch on Race, Religion and Royalty (3R) issue

 

 IGP: Issues surrounding '3R' can disrupt harmony if not dealt with properly

 

He states clearly that all of us are pendatangs, except for our Orang Asli/Asal & natives of Sabah/Sarawak.
This guy is more qualified than almost all our Ministers & Ulama.





Strong presence: Police keeping the situation under control outside the nomination centre in Ampang, Selangor. — SHAARI CHEMAT/The Star
 

KUALA LUMPUR: All parties involved in the state elections and Kuala Terengganu by-election must avoid touching on sensitive issues, especially those relating to race, religion and royalty (3R), says Inspector-General of Police Tan Sri Razarudin Husain.

“We will monitor the situation and action will be taken against those who touch on such issues,” he said.

Razarudin said a 3R task force will complete investigations on 3R offences within seven days after an investigation paper (IP) is opened.

“It is an ideal duration as we don’t want such matters to drag on.

“Once completed, we will refer the IP to the Attorney General’s Chambers,” he told a press conference at Bukit Aman here yesterday.

He reminded all to not cause any provocation or trouble during the elections.

“Sufficient police personnel and officers will be deployed during the campaign period and during the post-election period.

“We will take necessary action to ensure the safety of all involved in the elections,” he said.

The IGP said the nomination process for the six state elections and the by-election had proceeded smoothly.

A total of 17,176 police officers and personnel were deployed on nomination day yesterday and there was no unwanted incident by press time.

“We salute the political maturity of the candidates and their supporters in ensuring a smooth process.

“We hope such behaviour will continue during the campaign period as well,” he said.

He said the police had also deployed 82 Ops Cantas teams comprising 1,459 officers and personnel to take action against any criminal act.

For Kelantan, he said the Ops Cantas teams were deployed in mid-May while the others were sent out on June 29 for the remaining five states.

“So far, more than 400 individuals have been detained.

“The Ops Cantas teams will also monitor activities during the campaign period, such as ceramah,” he said.

He advised candidates to apply for police permits early for campaign activities such as ceramah and walkabouts.

“Applying for the permits is important to avoid any clash or overlapping between rival parties and candidates.

“I told the respective state police chiefs to entertain these applications up to 24 hours before any event but it is better to apply early.

“If there is any application overlap between rival candidates, the applications from those who submitted late will be rejected,” he said. 

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New initiative aims to increase GDP, improve wage levels and quality of life The Madani Economy framework to restructure the country...
 
People walking past a mural depicting the faces of Malaysian children at Jalan Raja Chulan, Kuala Lumpur. — AZHAR MAHFOF/The Star\ THERE a...


 

Tuesday, August 1, 2023

Madani economy for a better Malaysia

THERE are numerous structural weaknesses, challenges and issues hindering Malaysia’s current and future growth trajectory.

These include a complexity of business regulations and investment climate; a lack of private investment dynamism; slower productivity growth and capital efficiency; a low level of technology adoption, lack of innovation and technological advancement; shortage of talent and skilled manpower; high dependency on low-skilled foreign workers; corruption; income inequality and regional growth disparity.

Pressures from external sources are getting more complex and intensified on the aspects of competitiveness, geo-economic complexity, economic security threat as well as the disruption of environmental and climate change.

The state of the nation needs a fundamental reset to cope with external shocks and seize new opportunities. It is no longer a choice but a must take fundamental re-orientation.

The “Madani Economy: Empowering the People” framework navigates our desired economic development path (mission, execution and targets) over a 10-year period to rebuild a Better Malaysia that is sustainable, competitive and resilient.

The re-engineering of Malaysia will be anchored on Madani values – sustainability, care and compassion, respect, innovation, prosperity and trust. The seven targets to be achieved over a 10-year period are:

> Top 30 largest economy (currently at 37),

> Top 12 in global competitiveness (currently at 27),

> Top 25 on the Human Development Index (currently at 62),

> Increase labour share of income to 40% (currently at 32.4%),

> Improve Malaysia’s position in the Corruption Perception Index to Top 25 (currently at 61),

> Towards fiscal sustainability, targeting deficit of 3%, or better (currently at minus 5.6% of gross domestic product or GDP in 2022), and

> Increase female labour force participation rate to 60% (currently at 55.5%).

The Madani Economy framework offers clarity on what we aim to achieve; what are the broad strategies and enablers to get there from where we are now.

It consists of two pillars:

> “Raise the ceiling” – which is aimed at restructuring and elevating the economy through greater regionalisation and enhancing competitiveness, driving foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic direct investment (DDI), digitalisation, sustainable green investment (climate resilience, renewable energy, electric vehicles and food security) as well as moving up the value chain, and

> “Raise the Floor” – ensuring inclusive growth, quality jobs and higher wages and equality of opportunities for all the vulnerable households regardless of race and geographical location.

The narrative serves a framework for current and future actions. It is a call to action to move the agenda forward; to address a broad spectrum of critical issues that we collectively face; and aiming to shed light on what future we face, what future do we want and what must be done to get there.

The initiatives and strategies for addressing the structural problems must be formulated in a coherent way, providing a mapping of macroeconomic policies and constructive policy proposals on the “no finishing line” transformations agenda, and the reshaping of the Malaysian economy is a continuous process.

We know what went wrong and what needs to change. We have to endure the painful transition costs and adjustments when making radical reforms and overhauling the system.

The consideration of our development, economic and social priorities require new systemic changes, reforms of state intervention to facilitate private sector’s growth dynamism, more radical welfare reforms and well-being policies, competitive and high-quality and durable taxation measures and rising awareness of climate change, ecosystem degradation and pollution destroying the environment.

Towards this end, public sector and fiscal reforms are urgently needed to rebuild the fiscal buffers through broadening a narrow revenue base (tax revenue at 12% of total GDP), re-prioritisation of non-critical expenditures, containing high public debt (more than 60% of GDP) and targeted subsidy rationalisation.

We need strong fiscal resources and effective administration capacity. Good fiscal governance is needed to plug leakages, strengthen public delivery efficiency with enhanced tracking of fiscal programmes and spending.

Political rhetoric, including populist rhetoric, must not be deviating from realism. The government needs to carefully weigh on the fiscal budget deficit and ballooning debt sustainability when considering the populist measures as fiscally unsustainable measures can undermine investors’ confidence in the soundness of managing the country’s public finance.

The rollout of the National Energy Transition Roadmap (Part 1) has identified 10 flagship catalyst projects and initiatives (an estimated total investment of more than RM25bil and 23,000 job opportunities) to accelerate the pace of the energy transition.

The New Industrial Master Plan 2030 will map out a comprehensive industrial direction as well as strategies with the aim of positioning Malaysia for new catalytic sectors and industries.

It is a mission-based approach with identified mission-based projects to drive the manufacturing industry transformation in four ways, that is by advancing economic complexity, tech-up for a digitally vibrant nation, pushing for net-zero target, and safeguarding economic security and inclusivity.

While we have the elements (diversity strengths, strategically located in Asia, and diversified economic sectors with strong industrial base) to build on to make Malaysia great again based on a whole of nation approach, strong political conviction is needed and all stakeholders must be committed towards making a “total national reset” to secure a better future for Malaysia.

If we continue with “business as usual” and implement half-baked reforms, Malaysia will continue to regress and achieve sub-par economic growth, and continue to lag behind her regional peers.

Can the country rise to these challenges and restore its economic vibrancy?

Radical changes are needed for transformations to be a competitive nation, and to deliver more just, equitable, sustainable and resilient futures.

This requires fundamental cognitive, behavioural and mindset shifts, including rethinking the role of state, rethinking growth dimension, rethinking resources efficiency, rethinking the commons and rethinking as well as upholding justice and ensuring equitable.

Attempts to promote reforms are politically hazardous, especially when the potential losers are politically influential.

Our observations showed that some political interests often override economic consideration, and any push for economic and market reforms will necessarily have to come from within.

The government must regain credibility and trust of our people, businesses and investors when it comes to economic agenda matters to Malaysians.

These include building a sustainable and resilient economy, fixing the middle-income trap, raising the households’ income, reskilling our manpower for future-proof, providing quality and affordable core services (housing, healthcare, education), as well as making our community safer, inclusive and equitable for all Malaysians regardless of race, religion and geographical location.

Lee Heng Guie is Socio-Economic Research Centre executive director. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.

by Lee Heng Guie
Writer

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Sunday, July 30, 2023

Malaysia Madani to Uplifting economy and quality of life

New initiative aims to increase GDP, improve wage levels and quality of life

The Madani Economy framework to restructure the country’s economy is to ultimately provide the people with the benefits to enjoy a better quality of life, says the Prime Minister. Execution is very important as announcements are not new to Malaysia, say trade groups.

KUALA LUMPUR: Taking Malaysia into one of the top 30 economies in the world over the next decade is among the ambitious goals set by Putrajaya under Madani Economy, the latest economic framework.

“This is a framework to elevate the dignity and status of our nation by restructuring the economy towards making Malaysia a leader in the South-east Asian region. This ultimately benefits the people, (who would) enjoy a better quality of life,” said Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

Anwar, who launched the Madani Economy: Empowering the Rakyat initiative here yesterday, said it was imperative for the country to not rest on its laurels with its 4% to 5% annual GDP growth rate, but instead to become a regional economic powerhouse, beginning with targeting a yearly GDP expansion rate of 5.5% to 6%.

“Malaysia needs to build larger economic integration with our neighbours, especially as the world is facing a supply chain disruption. We need to better equip Malaysian corporations for greater competitiveness and to at least breach into the Asean market,” he said in his keynote address at the Madani Economy launch.

Another important area is to improve wage levels to help everyone have a better quality of life, he added. This includes hauling the country’s Compensation of Employees to Gross Domestic Product (CE:GDP) ratio up from 35% to 45% and improving Malaysia’s standing in the Global Competitiveness Index to 12th or better, said Anwar.

The CE:GDP ratio is generally used to gauge the income-earning power of a country’s citizens and measures the share of compensation paid to employees who make up a country’s GDP.

Apart from that, the Prime Minister said that there should be sensible utilisation of free trade agreements for better movement of goods, capital, human resources and technology-sharing.

He said the government was also looking to introduce tax incentives to reward companies that produce high-impact economic products and activities.

To improve Malaysia’s global competitiveness and expand the economy, Anwar said his administration has allocated Rm100mil to complete the infrastructure at various industrial zones throughout the country. An additional Rm100mil would be allotted to enhance the research, development, commercialisation and innovation ecosystem, he added.

The focus will be on industrial needs, renewable energy and new growth activities – all part of the government’s effort to achieve a gross domestic expenditure on R&D to GDP ratio of 3.5%.

“All the efforts to enhance the country’s economy ultimately leads to the next step, which is to improve the livelihood of Malaysians. The success of the Madani Economy structural renewal has to be measured by how it produces jobs with a meaningful remuneration package for the people,” he said.

The government is also looking into several oft-mentioned initiatives such as enacting a progressive minimum wage system – which has partly been put into effect – as well as reducing the reliance on foreign labour by introducing a tiered-levy system on non-malaysian workers.

Anwar said such efforts will increase the adoption of automation and provide upskilling opportunities for Malaysian employees.

He said his administration is working with a number of government-linked investment companies (GLICS) to invest up to Rm1bil in additional funds, in partnership with private investors, to support local startups and to further spur technopreneurship.

Recognising that approximately 79% of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMES) consist of micro businesses, he said these small-size endeavours have the potential to expand and penetrate international markets, especially if they get enough facilities and support.

As such, he said the government would prepare an addition Rm100mil in the digitalisation matching grant to help MSMES further digitalise their business models. This is in line with digital economy reforms meant to enhance the online business exposure of such enterprises.

Madani is an acronym for a policy that embraces six core values: kemampanan (Sustainability), Kesejahteraan (Prosperity), Daya Cipta (Innovation), hormat (Respect), keyakinan (Trust) and Ihsan (Compassion).

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