Is education fit for the future?

 

EDUCATION is the most controversial of subjects.

 

 One thing is clear, whilst the quantity of educated manpower is critical to national strength, quality may matter more.

Parents quarrel about the quality of education for their kids, just as societies are deeply divided on education as it defines the future.

Is the current education system fit for purpose to cope with a more complex, fractious future, fraught with possible war?

According to Stanford University’s Guide to Reimagining Higher Education, 96% of university chief academic officers think that their students are ready for the workforce, where only 11% of business leaders feel the same.

As the population and work force grow, the gap between skills demanded by employers and the education received by school leavers is widening, so much so that many are finding it hard to get the jobs that they want.

As technology accelerates in speed and complexity, the quality of education becomes more important than ever. Is it for the elites or the masses?

The Greek philosopher Aristotle recognised that the aim of education is for knowledge, but there was always a different view as to have knowledge for the individual or whether education must prepare the individual to fulfil the needs of society.

Feudal systems hardly paid attention to the masses, whereas most ancient institutes of higher learning were for elites, either for religious orders or in Chinese history, to prepare for civil or military service, but blended with self-cultivation.

Conservative think tank American Enterprise Institute (AEI) has just produced a fascinating study on the implications of higher education for national security.

Covering the period 1950-2040, the study acknowledged that the United States attained uncontested power status, because it had the highest levels of educational attainment and manpower.

In 1950, the United States, with less than 5% of the world’s population, had 45% share of world population aged 25 to 64 with completed tertiary education.

In comparison, India had 5% and China about half of that.

By 2020, the United States’ share had dropped to roughly 16%, whereas China was catching up, whilst India had just under 10%.

By 2040, depending on different estimates, China may double its share to between 15% and 20%, whereas India would have overtaken the United States with 12%, leaving the United States third with 10%.

It is a truism that education matters for economic growth and power.

Every additional year of schooling for children is estimated to add 9% to 10% increase in per capita output.

If you add in “business climate” with improvements in education, health and urbanisation, these factors explain five-sixths of differences in output per capita across countries.

Under the liberal world order, America encouraged the spread of global education, so much so that the global adult illiteracy (those without any schooling) fell from 45% in 1950 to only 13% by 2020.

This worldwide expansion in education was good for the world, but it also reduced the comparative advantage of the education and technology front-runners, particularly the United States.

The AEI study reported that the share of global adult population with at least some tertiary education increased from under 2% in 1950 to 16% today and would approach 22% by 2040.

In 1950, eight of the top 10 largest national highly educated working age labour pool was in advanced countries. By 2020, their share was half.

By 2040, this is likely to be only three out of 10.

In essence, India and China would take the lead in total highly trained manpower, especially in science and technology, with the United States “an increasingly distant third place contestant.”

The AEI study illustrates why increasingly American universities will be more selective in their future foreign student intake, especially in science and technology which may have impact on national security matters.

As late as 2017, MIT manifested global ambitions in its strategic plan, “Learning about the world, helping to solve the world’s greatest problems, and working with international collaborators who share our curiosity and commitment to rigorous scientific inquiry.”

That global vision may be cut back in light of the growing geopolitical split into military blocs. Western universities may no longer be encouraged to train foreign students into areas where they can return to compete in key technologies.

In short, geopolitical rivalry will determine the future of resources allocated to education, research and development and technology.

No country can afford liberal education in which every student is encouraged to do what he or she wants to do.

Students today want to be more engaged in the big social issues, such as climate change and social inequality.

But at the same time, they expect more experiential immersion into careers that are more self-fulfilling.

Instead, institutes of higher learning are forced by economics to provide more shorter term courses to upgrade worker skills, using new teaching methods and tools, especially artificial intelligence, virtual reality etc.

At the national level, governments will push universities into more research and development and innovation to gain national competitiveness, including R&D on defence and national security sectors.

This means that the education pipeline or supply chain will also be bifurcated like global supply chains that are being disrupted and split by geopolitics.

The conversation on what should go into the curriculum for education is only just beginning. Much of this is to do with funding.

As higher levels of education are more expensive, especially in the high technology area, whilst governments budgets are constrained, universities will turn to private sources of funding.

The more society polarises, the more likely that such funding would turn towards entrenchment of vested interests, rather than solutions to structural problems.

Education is controversial precisely because it is either a unifying social force or a divisive one.

One thing is clear, whilst the quantity of educated manpower is critical to national strength, quality may matter more.

The Soviet Union had the second largest share of educated manpower during the Cold War, but it did not save it from collapse.

Will our future education system provide leaders who are able to cope with the complexities of tomorrow?

As the poet T S Eliot asked in his poem “The Rock” in 1934, “where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge?”

That question is being asked not just in universities, but by society as a whole.

Andrew Sheng writes on global issues from an Asian perspective. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. 

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Have property scams grown in the pandemic?

Is this the biggest property scam ever? | 60 Minutes Australia

 With more real estate businesses moving online, it is easier than ever for fraudulent transactions to occur.

 

Home buyers should verify the authenticity of the real estate practitioners they are dealing with

By Yanika Liew

If you are new to the property scene, dipping your toes in can feel like taking a dive. It can be intimidating to wade through stories of digital impersonations, stolen deposits and backdoor deals. The digitalisation of commerce has skyrocketed as a result of the pandemic. Enterprising companies are launching platforms for their services in a changing market and property is no different. With more real estate businesses moving online, it is easier than ever for fraudulent transactions to take place.

Take the recent cases in Singapore where scams involved convincing victims to pay a home-viewing deposit to secure an appointment. Armed with unregistered identity cards, scammers impersonated property agents by sending a picture of their credentials to the victims. There are multiple instances of scammers uploading fraudulent listings on websites. By the time their victims realise they have been duped, it is already too late.

“Scammers use technology and social media to reach out to prospects more easily. It is very disturbing and there is very little anyone can do to help buyers and sellers who have been cheated by unregistered estate agents or unregistered real estate negotiators,” Malaysian Institute of Estate Agents (MIEA) president Chan Ai Cheng said.

Real estate transactions are a gold mine for scammers, as the process involves large amounts of money being transferred to another account. Scammers can create fake online websites to get customers to bank in the money to them, Propnex Realty chief operating officer Evon Heng commented, who is also MIEA secretary-general.

According to both Chan and Heng, many transactions involve collecting a deposit in a sale or rental, and this money is kept by the individuals. It is a very common case for scammers to abort the deal without returning the refund, causing the buyer to lose out on the deposit. Whereas a registered agent is required to transfer any and all deposits to an account managed by the firm, under the client's name. This ensures that the buyer is protected by the law should anything happen, significantly reducing the risk of exploitation.

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“Scammers use technology and social media to reach out to prospects more easily,” Chan said.

Another common scam involving property is the sale of a project that is non-existent, such as the scam promising victims affordable housing. Scammers claim they have access to units from a high-demand affordable housing scheme, without complying with the eligibility criteria.

While there are instances of affluent victims being caught up in these scams, Chan reports that a majority of property scam victims are in the B40 category, the second being the M40. These groups are less aware or experienced in real estate matters. Similarly, those located away from the city, in small, rural towns are disproportionately targeted. These areas are especially vulnerable due to fewer safety nets available. With B40 families having fewer resources than other income groups, they have more to lose and fewer pathways to receive support, whether from authorities or their community.

So who do you have to watch out for? Chan outlined a framework the public can use when identifying these scams.

“The case of scams defined as defraud or embezzlement in an estate agency transactions is predominantly by illegal brokers as they are not regulated by law and also because they need not operate via a firm,” Chan said.

Real estate practitioners are required to follow strict guidelines when advertising, which include the practitioner’s real estate negotiator (REN) or real estate agent (REA) number and the registration number of the firm they represent. This is crucial information that the public can use to verify with the Board of Valuers, Appraisers, Estate Agents and Property Managers (BOVAEA). Those who are unable to present proper paperwork should be questioned. Chan also warned the public against real estate practitioners who pressure their clients into financial commitments, more so when they seem to be withholding information.

What can you do?

When you realise you have fallen for a scam, the first instinct is to panic. MIEA reported that one of the barriers to victims coming forward was the embarrassment they faced when they admitted to falling for a scam. Particularly in regards to transactions that do not involve a large sum of money, victims seldom choose to confront the situation.

Regardless of such inhibitions, Chan recommends victims lodge a report to the police. If the scam involves a housing development, victims should lodge a report with the Ministry of Housing and Local Government (KPKT). These reports will be able to provide authorities with data, assisting not just yourself, but future victims. In order to warn the rest of the public of such instances, she added that victims could contact the press for further outreach.

 

 “Research and verification are vital for any transaction or purchase,” Heng said.

Homebuyers are encouraged to work only with registered RENs or REAs, whose authenticity can also be verified via a written authorisation from the owners of the property being sold. In the case of homeowners eager to rent or sell their property, reach out to professionals rather than appoint an unregistered broker, even if it is someone you trust. Especially when making deposits, ask yourself these questions; could it be an individual’s bank account you are sending your money to? If it is a company, is it a registered one?

“By no means it’s all safe and well, dealing with registered persons but at least they are known, the regulatory bodies are able to take more immediate action or even deregister them, there is accountability when one is registered,” Chan said.

As more and more Malaysians become comfortable handling transactions online, their vigilance begins to diminish. 

“Not only are property scams more prominent, but other scams are also. Research and verification are vital for any transaction or purchase,” Heng said.

She noted that the digitalisation of real estate created other challenges for homebuyers and estate practitioners. Many people enjoy visiting the unit itself or its sales gallery when looking for property. These are preferences that will be easier to accommodate with the easing of Covid-19 pandemic restrictions, but the trend of digitalisation is not likely to falter in the coming years.

As the property industry continues to evolve, there will be new challenges for all stakeholders involved. Learn more about protecting yourself in real estate transactions by visiting MIEA’s public awareness campaign, via www.instagram.com/myrealagents/ 

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Experts urge removal of US extra tariffs, Elimination of China tariffs will be key

Expert: U.S. is damaging itself for putting tariffs on China

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Removing additional tariffs on Chinese goods will significantly ease the pressure on companies in both China and the United States, and help the world to curb inflation, experts said on Wednesday (May 4).

Their remarks followed the Office of the United States Trade Representative, or USTR, announcement on Tuesday of the commencement of the statutory four-year review of the continuation of the US "Section 301" tariffs on Chinese products.

In the four-year review, the USTR will examine the tariff actions on Chinese-origin products from July 6, 2018 to Aug 23, 2018.

Based on this review, the US government can determine whether to maintain the tariffs, change the tariff rates, or remove the tariffs.

In the first quarter of this year, China-US trade grew 12 percent year-on-year to $185.92 billion, data from China's General Administration of Customs showed.

According to Tu Xinquan, dean of the China Institute for WTO Studies at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, the additional US tariffs on Chinese products have put heavy burdens on US companies and aggravated inflation levels in the country.

In the US, many businesses involved in trade have been seeking rollback of the additional tariffs on Chinese products.

Besides, many of the tariffs were levied through administrative orders rather than being based on relevant laws. This led to a series of complaints and lawsuits that challenged the authority of those orders issued by the former administration, he said.

In the two-step review process, the first step is for the USTR to offer an opportunity for US domestic industries that benefited from the tariffs to request their continuation. Legally, the tariffs are to terminate four years after their application, if no US party submits a request that they be continued.

If there are requests to continue, the tariffs are received, under the statute the following step requires the USTR to undertake a review of the effectiveness of the "Section 301" tariffs on achieving their objectives and their impact on the US economy and consumers.

Cancelling the additional tariffs on Chinese products will also help many parts of the world to curb inflation, because stable product and commodity supplies from China and the US – the world's two largest economies – will facilitate the world to build strong industrial and supply chains, said Zhang Yongjun, deputy chief economist with the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.

As the US dollar is a global currency, the increase in its supply, which far outpaced that of other global currencies like the euro, directly pushed up prices in the US, besides fueling inflation worldwide, which has been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he noted.

Amid global inflation and growing pressures on the global supply chain, tariffs have become an inconvenient factor that inhibits enterprises from conducting international trade cooperation, said Zhou Mi, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation in Beijing.

China and the US, he said, should not only remove additional tariffs imposed during their trade disputes, but even further reduce tariffs to make them even lower than the pre-dispute levels. That will significantly boost expectations on normal global supply chain operations, bolster market confidence and facilitate global economic recovery.

"As the world's two largest economies, healthy bilateral relations between China and the US are important not only to them but the world, as the global economy has been facing a number of uncertainties in recent years," he said.

Woody Guo, president for China unit at Herbalife Nutrition, a US-based manufacturer of nutrition products, said it is beneficial for China and the US to enhance their ties in the area of trade and economic cooperation.

"In China, consumption upgrade and domestic demand expansion will help the country to grow its consumer base under the dual-circulation development paradigm, providing huge growth potential for foreign enterprises, including Herbalife Nutrition," Guo said. 

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Elimination of China tariffs will be key 

Easing restrictions: The US and Chinese flags outside a hotel in Beijing. American tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese imports are due to expire in July, but could be extended if enough industries ask for an extension. — AFP

WASHINGTON: The United States government should eliminate or at least reduce additional tariffs on Chinese imports imposed during the Trump administration, a US trade expert says, arguing that such trade liberalisation measures will help lower elevated inflation and stabilise inflation expectations.

“Here, we’re running a red hot economy. So anything you can do to reduce that cycle is good news,” Gary Hufbauer, non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), told Xinhua in a recent phone interview.

In a research published on PIIE’s website, Hufbauer and his colleagues Megan Hogan and Yilin Wang argued that “a feasible trade liberalisation package” could deliver a one-time reduction in consumer price index (CPI) inflation of around 1.3 percentage points. That would save US$797 (RM3,467) for every US household.

He said the direct effect of eliminating additional tariffs on Chinese products would be a 0.3 percentage point reduction in the CPI, but there would also be indirect effect, which will add “substantially” to the 0.3 percentage point.

“It would be a pretty big signal to US firms that they are going to face more competition and that might cause them to moderate their price increases as inflation rolls forward,” said the long time trade expert.

“We’re in a world now where inflation expectations are really quite high,” Hufbauer said, noting that US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate hikes would have some effect on inflation expectations, and trade liberalisation measures “would have an additional effect.”

Stabilising inflation expectations is important, he said, because when expectations are that inflation is going to continue, “that then feeds into wage demands and that then keeps the cycle going.”

According to the latest data from the US Labour Department, the CPI in March surged 8.5% from a year earlier, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending December 1981. That followed a 7.9% year-on-year gain in February.

US personal consumption expenditures price indexes, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, soared by 6.6% in March over the past year, the Commerce Department reported on Friday.

In reaction to the argument that reducing the China tariffs would not lead to a meaningful reduction in prices, Hufbauer said it doesn’t completely eliminate the inflation problem, “but it’s better than doing nothing.”

“So there’s raising interest rates, there’s cutting back federal spending, there’s reducing tariffs, all of those things have some impact,” he said. “I would say it’s something where every little bit counts.”

Regarding the current political environment, Hufbauer said he thinks it will be difficult for the administration to reduce or eliminate additional tariffs on Chinese imports before the mid-term elections, but he hopes that it will do that.

The trade expert said he is “very encouraged” by a recent statement by Deputy National Security Adviser Daleep Singh, who said the Biden administration could lower tariffs on non-strategic Chinese goods such as bicycles or apparel to help curb inflation.Hufbauer noted that the Biden administration could be reluctant to remove the Trump-era tariffs, because it would have to face criticism for being “soft” on China.

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Malaysia's 1Q18 to 4Q21 GDP performance, International scenario likely to affect trajectory

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International scenario likely to affect trajectory

“Hopefully we will start to see private investments gaining traction, but this depends very much also on what is going on in the international front, especially in terms of the Russia-ukraine war and global inflation.” Carmelo Ferlito

Despite being on a recovery path, the country’s economic growth trajectory could be affected by uncertainties on the global front. 

PMalaysia’s gradual and controlled easing of Covid-19 restrictions as it transitions into edemicity is set to give the country’s economy a much needed boost.

Despite being on the recovery path, economists have however cautioned that Malaysia’ economic growth trajectory could still be affected by uncertainties on the global front.

Malaysia University of Science and Technology professor Geoffrey Williams said the ongoing Russia-ukraine war, China’s lockdowns and likely austerity in the United States and Europe are key factors that could have an impact on Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

“The expected negative outlook of the international economic scenario will determine the outcome of Malaysia’s second quarter GDP, not Covid-19 and borders reopening, which we expect to play a marginal role in this phase,” he told Starbiz.

In a base case scenario (which refers to a set of basic assumptions where the results would lead to the most realistic outcome), Williams said Malaysia’s second quarter GDP is forecast to increase 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 2.6% year-on-year.

“This scenario implies that the GDP will be flat over the first half of 2022. This is in contrast to the consensus view of a rampant recovery with a yearly growth figure close to 5.5% and 6%. In our base scenario, we think that a 3.5% year growth is more likely.” 

 Malaysia University of Science and Technology professor Geoffrey Williams said the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, China’s lockdowns and likely austerity in the United States and Europe are key factors that could have an impact on Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

In a risk scenario, Williams said he foresees Malaysia’s GDP “going into slightly negative territory”.

“In our base scenario, we expect to see a systematic and progressive recovery, consistent with the potential rate of growth of the economy only in the second half of 2022.

“The contribution of the external demand is expected to be close to zero, reflecting the international cyclical weakness we are already observing in the US, European Union and China,” he said.

Malaysia, which has been gradually easing its Covid-19-related standard operating procedures since late last year, finally reopened its borders to international travellers from April 1.

Last week, Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin announced a slew of relaxations to Malaysia’s Covid-19 restrictions.

Centre for Market Education chief executive officer Carmelo Ferlito said the relaxation measures announced recently would be a good incentive for the tourism industry.

However, he said the impact of the relaxations would likely be better reflected in the third quarter of this year, rather than in the current (second) quarter.

“We can still expect a good momentum for export, pulled by a weaker currency (which is temporarily good for export but harmful for the economy in general).

“Hopefully we will start to see private investments gaining traction, but this depends very much also on what is going on in the international front, especially in terms of the Russiaukraine war and global inflation.”

Malaysia’s GDP expanded 3.1% in 2021, after posting a 3.6% year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter of last year.

In a base case scenario, HELP University economist Dr Paolo Casadio said Malaysia’s first quarter 2022 GDP is projected to shrink 1.5% quarter-on-quarter and contract 0.7% year-on-year. 

 

Centre for Market Education chief executive officer Carmelo Ferlito said the relaxation measures announced recently would be a good incentive for the tourism industry.

“This would be due to contraction in investments, negative net external demand and stagnation in private consumption.

“We do not see a clear pattern in private consumption and investments, which would be consistent with a positive transition of the economy toward a systematic and sustained recovery.”

Casadio added that the current phase of recovery is “a delicate transition”.

“There are plenty of weaknesses and risks of a new recessionary phase, although the risk of a recession is only around 25%. Disposable income and wealth among households are not recovering due to weak real wages growth, slow increase in employment and continuing withdrawals from the Employees’ Provident Fund to finance current expenditure, even among the middle-income population.”

Ferlito, meanwhile, said he was “not a big fan of GDP forecasts” when asked about his projections for Malaysia’s economic performance for the first quarter of 2022.

“It’s because they fail to ignore how an eventual growth or decline is built. For example, GDP grew in 2021 by 3.1%, but that growth was mainly driven by government spending and private consumption.

“This means that growth is resting on very unstable pillars, being basically financed by household and government debt and inflation.”

Ferlito emphasised that private investments remained “quite stagnant” in 2021.

“The key drivers of a sustainable growth path are savings, which are not measured by GDP and private investments. “I think that beyond the GDP figure, which in itself is pretty useless, we should look at the microfoundations behind it. We will be on the right path if private investments grow, while a closer look should also be devoted to the savings dynamics, which is not captured by the GDP.”Ferlito noted that Bank Negara foresees a good rebound in private investments for 2022.

“This is what we need to hope for, although I believe that a lot of elements of uncertainty are still weighing on that, in particular for the first quarter of 2022.”

Ferlito said the political situation in Malaysia could also have an impact on the country’s GDP performance.

“Hopefully we will have elections with the emergence of a strong majority supported by a reformist agenda. Then there is the big issue of China, which in 2021 accounted for 15.5% of Malaysian exports. China is Malaysia’s first trade partner and therefore their utopic approach to Covid-19 will surely have an impact on our economy.”

Ferlito added that geopolitical uncertainties in Europe could also have an impact on Malaysia’s economic performance.

“Europe accounts for around 7% of the international trade of Malaysia, both in terms of import and export. Troubles there will lead to repercussions here.”

Williams said the focus at the moment should be on price stability and maintaining expansionary credit conditions.

“The government has managed the containment of inflation well up to now, through the control of petrol and other prices. But it was an error to allow the hike of the electric tariffs for the non-residential users in March. This is adding perhaps 0.5% to the outlook of inflation in a very critical phase.”

Williams said this hike should be reversed to guarantee a low level of inflation, which is necessary to support the purchasing power of salaries.

“This would be possible by redistributing the gains and costs of the increase in oil and gas that the different government-linked companies are experiencing and avoids penalising firms and households.”

Casadio meanwhile said he expects Bank Negara to maintain the current expansionary conditions and not revise the official interest rate of the monetary policy until the second half of 2022. 

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Kindness from staff is always appreciated

 

 

BEING able to walk again must be the deepest wish of every wheelchair user. The sense of helplessness that comes with being unable to walk is especially felt when they need to go out to attend to business because not every place is wheelchair friendly, and not everyone is kind and helpful.

My wife became a wheelchair user several years ago. To make the situation worse, both of us are already in our sunset years. But in spite of this, we don’t have problems going to places where there are ramps or elevators, such as malls or hospitals. Otherwise, going out would be really challenging.

Recently, my wife was required to go personally to a bank in Pantai Jerjak in Sungai Nibong, Penang, to set up an online account.

Being able to do her banking transactions online is now necessary for her because the bank is no longer serving wheelchair-bound customers waiting in their cars.

As the bank is situated among a row of shophouses, accessing it could be difficult for a wheelchair user. I therefore went a day earlier to survey the area. I noticed that the most difficult part would be for the wheelchair user to get onto a nearly 30cm-high step that leads to the lobby because the bank is on a higher level than the five-foot way.

I explained my problems to a bank employee in charge of walkin customers. She told me not to worry as I could enter through the ATM area where there’s a wheelchair ramp. The shutter wall between the ATM area and bank’s lobby could easily be rolled up, she said.

With this assurance, I brought my wife to the said bank a few days later. It was certainly an uphill task for an elderly man to push someone in a wheelchair across a road and raised sidewalk that was uneven and rough. Thankfully, when we reached the five-foot way in front of the bank, a bank employee came out and led us to the ATM area. The shutter was also rolled up almost simultaneously.

Anyway, my wife couldn’t have her online banking account set up because her thumbprints are not readable. She was told that she needed a letter from the Registration Department to facilitate the process.

As we were about to leave, I requested the bank employee at the entrance to kindly roll up the shutter. We were shocked when she said she did not have the key to do so, and directed us to exit by the main entrance. In dismay, I asked loudly why this employee had no empathy at all for the elderly and a wheelchair user.

Another employee kindly came to our aid and had the shutter rolled up immediately. Before leaving, I told the unkind employee to her face, “The key is always there, but you refused to lift a finger to help!”

Everyone will grow old one day and, more likely than not, suffer from serious health problems.

Hopefully, the bank will continue to reach out to customers who are in dire need of assistance.

CK. CHAI Penang 

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