West is failing to capitalise on rising China

We are rapidly moving away from an 'old world' dominated by Europe, the United States and Japan to a 'new world' led by China

 

SINGAPORE: Western nations have failed to capitalise on China's economic rise as they struggle with their own problems, leaving others to benefit from the Asian giant's insatiable demand, HSBC said.
 
"The world economy is increasingly led by China. Those nations raising their China exposure have outperformed. Western nations, faced with internal discord, have failed to grab the opportunity," the bank said.

"We are rapidly moving away from an 'old world' dominated by Europe, the US and Japan to a 'new world' led by China," it said in a report entitled "The Great Rotation".

Among the beneficiaries of the global shift are countries located close to China and far-flung exporters that supply the Asian giant's demand for commodities, the report noted.

South Korea's exports to China currently account for 12 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), up from 3.5 percent in 2000, HSBC said.

Malaysia and Singapore are also key industrial exporters to China while commodities producers like Australia, Chile, Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia "have also shared in the spoils," the bank added.

"And in demonstrating China's ever-increasing connections with Africa, Angola is now China's 14th most important source of imports ahead of India, France, Canada, Italy and Britain," it said.

Western countries, in contrast, have failed to exploit Chinese demand, it said.

US exports to China account for a mere 0.7 percent of US GDP, with Canada, France and Italy "more or less" at the same level, HSBC said.

Britain's exports to China are even less significant at 0.4 percent of British GDP, it said.

While Germany has expanded its trade ties with China, this was overshadowed by a bigger increase in its dependence on the rest of Europe, HSBC noted.

This is "one reason why, despite its competitive advantages, Germany found itself succumbing in the second half of 2012 to a crisis which had already engulfed other parts of the eurozone," the bank said.

HSBC forecasts China's economy to grow 8.6 percent this year, up from an estimated 7.8 percent expansion in 2012.

The US and Japanese economies are expected to grow 1.7 percent and 0.2 percent respectively next year while the eurozone is likely to contract 0.2 percent, the bank said.- AFP

Malaysian market to outperform

KUALA LUMPUR: The Malaysian equity market is expected to outperform the emerging Asian markets as price-to-book valuations are relatively low despite the sterling economic growth the country has seen last year, says an economist and investment strategist Herve Lievore (pic)

"We expect Malaysia to outperform other emerging Asian countries and that would probably take place in an environment where inflation could possibly accelerate given the fact that we have seen consumer price inflation extremely stable over the past four to five months," he told reporters at the HSBC 2013 Market Outlook briefing yesterday.

"We are expecting a moderate acceleration of inflation going forward but this is unlikely to derail the equity market," he added.

Lievore said it is also constructive on Malaysian equities due to massive undervaluation of the currency.

HSBC Global Asset Management (HK) Ltd senior economist and investment strategist  said emerging Asian markets excluding Singapore had grown by 20%-30% last year but the Malaysian equity market only grew by 10%.

“This is abnormal despite the fact the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2012 was strong but that should be temporary.

"The economic performance has been very good last year, we saw very positive developments especially on the structure of the economy," he said.

He said Malaysian equities are more attractive since prices have not risen that much last year when the economy actually performed very well.

Malaysian equities are undervalued given the prospect for earnings growth going forward. "What we have seen in 2012 is probably abnormal and temporary by nature," he said.

"The market has been obscured by uncertainties on when the general election will take place, but there is no reason why it underperforms that much."

HSBC favours cyclical sectors such as energy, basic materials, commodities, consumer discretionary and by extension, financials, which are dependent on the economic cycle.

Lievre also does not expect Bank Negara Malaysia to alter its key policy rates, which will remain at 3%.

Another factor for the central bank to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate is the expectation of ringgit appreciation going forward.

“In 2013, it is expected to perform better than other emerging Asian countries especially in the Asean region,” he told reporters at a media briefing.

He said increasing domestic demand would bode well for future growth.

He also said that the economic structure was strong but the equity market did not respond to that “evolution”.

“I would say that the market has probably been obscure on when the general election would take place but there is no reason why Malaysia underperformed that much.”

He was in favour of pure cyclical plays like commodities, utilities and financials and expected them to outperform defensive stocks.

He noted the timing for financial stocks to be different as banks responded to monetary cycle rather that economic cycle.

He was also positive about the number of companies listed on the local bourse.

“As the market becomes more liquid, it becomes more efficient and hence its attractiveness is increased,” he added.

Last year there were 17 new listings amounting to RM23bil on Bursa Malaysia.

He expected the inflation rate to be at a “benign” level although it might “accelerate moderately” as the consumer price index had stabilised in the past four to five months.

On the ringgit, he expected the currency to appreciate further as long as there was a trade surplus.

“Investors could take profit from stronger growth in the country and appreciation of currency, so, we are positive,” he said.

As for bonds, he expected growth to stabilise at the yield curve of slightly above 3%.

The only concern he had was the declining savings surplus if it were to fall below 8% of GDP.

On the global market, he expected growth to remain subdued with three key risks from the eurozone crisis, China's recovery and the “fiscal cliff” in the United States.

He said the Russian and China markets offered value for investors.

Sources:
NG BEI SHAN beishan@thestar.com.my and Eva Yeong sunbiz@thesundaily.com

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China sends fighters to counter Japan's war planes

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China’s Ministry of National Defense has denounced Japanese military aircraft disrupting the routine patrols of Chinese administrative aircraft.

At a press conference, an official with the ministry confirmed that China sent two J-10 fighters to the East China Sea, after a Y-8 aircraft was closely followed by two Japanese F-15 fighters. The Y-8 aircraft was patrolling the southwest airspace of the East China Sea oil platform on Thursday.

According to the official, the two J-10 fighters were sent to monitor the Japanese fighter jets tailing the Y-8 as well as another Japanese reconnaissance plane spotted in the same airspace. The official said Japanese military aircraft have been increasingly active in closely scouting Chinese aircraft.

The official said the Chinese military will be on high alert and China will resolutely protect the security of its air defense force and uphold its legitimate rights. The official also called for the Japanese side to respect relevant international laws and to prevent security disputes by taking effective measures.

Chinese Foreign Ministry:
 
China reaffirms routine military flights over East China Sea
Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei made the comments at a press briefing on Friday, responding to media reports that Japan deployed fighter jets to head off a number of Chinese military planes over the East China Sea on Thursday. Full story >>

China urges Japan to pursue peaceful development
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei has urged Japan to draw lessons from history and pursue a path of peaceful development. Hong Lei made the remarks at a regular press conference on Thursday, expressing China’s stance towards Japan’s plan to raise its defense budget in 2013. Full story >>

Japan responsible for plight with China
A spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry on Friday urged the Japanese government to "face reality" in Sino-Japanese relations. Spokesman Hong Lei said at a daily press briefing that Japan single-handedly pushed Sino-Japanese relations into a difficult situation. Full story >>

Ministry of National Defense:
 
Japanese military aircraft disrupting the routine patrols of Chinese administrative aircraft

At a press conference, an official with the ministry confirmed that China sent two J-10 fighters to the East China Sea after a Y-8 aircraft was closely followed by two Japanese F-15 fighters as it patrolled the southwest airspace of the East China Sea oil platform on Thursday. Full story >>

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 Japan tracer bullets will bring war closer

According to Japanese media, the Japanese government is considering permitting Japanese self-defense forces' fighter jets to fire tracer bullets as warning shots against Chinese surveillance planes which have "infringed" upon Japan's "territorial airspace" over the Diaoyu Islands.

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said yesterday that China has consistently opposed Japan's infringement upon China's sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands. China "remains vigilant against attempts to escalate the tensions."

The Chinese spokesman's statement is not enough to express the Chinese people's strong determination to fight back against Japan's unscrupulous action.

We believe that if Japan starts using tracer bullets, it will definitely trigger a military confrontation between China and Japan. Chinese people will certainly ask the government to send naval and air forces to retaliate.

Tracer bullets were used by Japan to warn Soviet Union surveillance aircraft above the Okinawa Prefecture in 1987. However, the relationship between the Soviet Union and Japan was one of war and invasion. The Diaoyu Islands are a typical disputed area.

We believe that China is carefully assessing plans to deploy combat aircraft to the Diaoyu Islands due to the imbalance between China's surveillance aircraft and Japan's fighter jets. If Japan uses tracer bullets, Chinese fighter jets are bound to be sent to the Diaoyu Islands.

China's replacing surveillance aircraft with fighter jets does not mean they will conduct military operations there. These are upgrades of China's ability to defend its sovereignty in the face of Japan's provocations. All of East Asia would face tension in that scenario, but we have no choice. We do not wish to begin a war with Japan. However, if Japan insists on provocations, we will follow it through to the end.

If the Chinese government does not earnestly prepare for it, it will certainly suffer huge political losses. The public wouldn't understand that and they would not accept any interpretations by the government.

China may fall into military conflict with Japan eventually. We hope we can continue our peaceful development, but our risk management strategies are more complex due to various pressures.

There is little room for concessions. Therefore, let us abandon all hesitation and seriously prepare for mutual warnings and confrontation with Japan over the Diaoyu Islands. If the situation goes awry, we must make Japan pay more of a price than China.

The Diaoyu Islands dispute will test the Chinese government's leadership for a long time. But we should have confidence: our rival is a bully which can even bear US military occupation. As long as we keep tough, we will not lose this test of wills. - Global Times



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US most corrupt country in the world?

Hong Kong action hero Jackie Chan has once again provoked criticism, this time from an American blogger, after suggesting on Chinese television that the US is the "most corrupt" country in the world.



"When you talk about corruption, the whole world, is there corruption in the United States? The most corrupt in the world!" the Rush Hour star, who has made headlines recently for his controversial views, told Phoenix TV last month.

Chan reaffirmed his view after the show's host questioned him -- "Of course! Where did the great breakdown come from? The world, the United States started it," Chan said, referring to the financial crisis and gesticulating as he spoke.

His comments were rebuked Thursday by Max Fisher, a foreign affairs blogger for the Washington Post, who called them "anti-American" rhetoric that was rooted in China's insecurity.

"To the degree that Chan's comments were anti-American, they likewise reflect a common Chinese view of the United States, one that is rooted not just in attitudes toward America but in China's proud but sometimes insecure view of itself," Fisher said.

Jackie Chan also said China is a relatively young country, where in the first half of its history it was "bullied by so many people", and that it only achieved "real success" in the past decade.

"Our country's leaders admit they are corrupted, etcetera. We are improving -- I can see our country is constantly improving and learning," he said, adding that everyone is making an issue out of China because it is "powerful" now.

Chan, who is known for his martial arts skills and daring stunt work, sparked criticism in Hong Kong, which was returned to China in 1997, after he reportedly told a Chinese magazine last December that protest in the city should be restricted.

In the same interview, he said that he was bullied by Hong Kong triads and had to hide in the United States. He also said he needed to carry a gun everyday to protect himself, leading to a police investigation. – AFP

Make the right money moves: investing in a property is still best

THE Christmas and New Year celebrations offer us good reasons to indulge in extra spending — shopping for presents, overseas trips, parties and rewarding ourselves more lavishly than usual.

But now that the fireworks are over, what’s next?

The talk of the town these days is that the coming 13th general election have to be called before April 2013. We will know whether the ruling coalition will govern this country for yet another term. To endear themselves to the voters, the opposing coalitions are dishing out promises of reform and concession, but are we aware how these overtures, if implemented, will affect our pockets?

Reform and spending power

Well, any reform that will increase the spending power of the people is welcome. We are anxiously waiting for reforms that will lessen our tax burdens, abolish road tolls, increase subsidies on essential goods (particularly petrol), lower the prices of cars and provide free education opportunities for all.

However, these reforms are not made available to us — yet. Instead, the looming prediction that Parliament may be dissolved appears to have caused the general public to display a sense of anxiety and unwillingness to make financial commitments in property until the coming general election is over and the government of the day has assumed office.

With or without these perks, most of us still make financial resolutions with every intention of fulfilling them. But as the months pass, it is common for us to lose sight of our goals.

Conventional standards often call for a progressive career, comfortable home in a good neighbourhood, respectable ride, savings for children’s education and retirement. Sounds simple and achievable, but we know from experience that distractions creep in to dwarf our hard-earned savings aimed for these plans.

It boils down to our priorities and preferences. If you have X amount of cash, what would you do with it?

Invest wisely

The prudent approach is to invest your hard-earned money in avenues that yield long-term returns. Early gratification like rewarding ourselves with a fancy vehicle (I refer to vehicles beyond our means) before securing our first property may not be a great idea, as that would be funding a depreciating asset.

I know a young professional who owns a Ferrari but lives in a rented a house. I can’t blame him as I did the same! Although, mine was not such a luxurious ride.

Buying a property may seem like a heavy commitment now with half-a-lifetime’s worth of mortgage repayments, especially if you are young and uncertain of your future plans.

Renting appears to promise freedom of one’s cash, but in the long term, you would be glad to have tightened your belt as property values could rake in lucrative returns over the years.

As an example, I refer to a family friend, Ting, the retired general manager of an elite country club. In his younger days, the accountant reckoned that it would be more feasible to rent a house rather than buying one.

In a way, he was right in that the rent was much lower than the mortgage payments. That was in the late 1980s.

However, the world economy rose in the early 1990s, followed by a global stock market super-bull run, and local property prices have since been soaring without pause. The value of a RM200,000 link house rocketed to over RM300,000 within a few years during that period.

On seeing the phenomenon, he hastily bought his first property, a double-storey link house in an exclusive country club resort for RM400,000. That house is currently valued at about RM1.2 million.

He has since paid off his mortgage and does not have to worry about paying thousands of ringgit in rent every month.

Had Ting held off on buying that piece of property, he would have been paying monthly rent of RM3,000 till today, and thereafter, mortgage payments of easily RM5,000 every month. His timely decision saved him from all of that.

Understandably, young adults who have just entered the work force may face difficulty doing the same and some may require parental assistance. If that is not an option, it would help to have a thorough savings plan drawn up.

It is our culture in Asia for working adults to continue living with the parents as this alleviates us of the burden of paying mortgage payments or rent every month, allows us to enjoy laundry services and home-cooked meals. With such comfort, it’s easy to be unmotivated and complacent.

For young adults, the chance to buy a house or condominium unit is fast slipping away, what with the doubling of prices in the last several years. Friends and clients who are property developers say prices in the city centre, have risen from RM800 per sq ft in 2004, and to RM1,600 in 2012.

Rising property prices

Property prices rise with demand, especially demand from foreign investors, some of who have set up home in the city centre, what with the successful implementation of the Malaysia, My Second Home Programme (MM2H).

Therefore, the past few years have seen developers change their strategy in a bid to attract foreign investors.

Recently, we often hear the marketing for “bungalows in the sky”, lavish units exceeding the more conventional 1,500sq ft to 2,000sq ft. Some of these luxurious condominiums are larger than 3,000sq ft. Clearly, these products are not catering to the young working class.

These days, a double-storey link house in any prime location is selling at above RM1mil and a 1,200sq ft apartment is going for approximately RM700,000.

Pretty soon, such properties will be unatainable for the younger generation.

Furthermore, there’s Bank Negara’s credit tightening measures such as the 70% loan cap on the margin of financing for a third property purchase and other stringent lending criteria for consumer banks to follow.

Owning property isn’t going to get any easier as the years pass.

A fair perspective of the potential capital appreciation can be gained via a comparison between the KL and Singapore city centres.

A 1,500sq ft apartment in prime areas in Singapore is priced around S$4mil (RM10mil), whereas a similar unit in the Golden Triangle costs some RM2.5mil to RM3mil.

If we were to use worldwide trends in property price appreciation as a guide, we would see property prices in Kuala Lumpur have room to rise.

With relatively low property prices in the city centre, and rental yields at 6.21% (which is among the highest in the region; with Singapore at 2.94% and Hong Kong at 3.23%), investing poses an excellent proposition.

I read recently that in Hong Kong the unit rate (per square meter) for an apartment costs US$19,323 (RM59,000), while Singapore follows closely at US$16,727.

Fortunately for us, Kuala Lumpur lags, at US$2,182 in spite of our relatively high standards of living.

Consider this — the sub-prime financial crisis and the subsequent financial turmoil in the European Union did not have any negative impact on prices in our property market and the recent The Star Property Fair 2012 attracted throngs of buyers and investors. To me, this shows the high demand for property in Malaysia.

In my opinion, local property prices will not be determined by the results of the general election. Whichever coalition wins, property prices will continue to rise. So, it is up to you to make the right money moves in 2013 and make your dreams come true.

May God bless you and your loved ones with love, peace, joy and excellent health!

Mind Your Money
By CHERMAINE POO

Chermaine Poo, a chartered accountant by profession, was trained in corporate finance. A former beauty queen, she has since gained popularity as an actress, TV host, commercial talent and emcee. If you have any questions on money matters, send her an email at info@chermainepoo.com or follow her on www.chermainepoo.com, www.facebook.com/chermainepoo and www.twitter.com/chermainepoo.



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