What is the best hedge against inflation?

`   

Then there are newer and more interesting physical and luxury items that isn’t part of the financial markets which appeared to hold the value very well. Minted limited edition Lego sets, select Hermes and Chanel handbags as well as tier-one luxury watch brands such as Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet and Rolex are such examples.

The challenge is finding a suitable asset class that is palatable to one’s risk tolerance, investment horizon and financial capability. This is why there are many varieties of asset classes in the financial markets that serve different purposes.
`
` IF you have savings of RM100,000 or Rm1mil, how would you utilise this amount of money to preserve your wealth?
`
` It is a legitimate question but increasingly pressing as globally, countries around the world are facing inflationary pressure due to the effects of loose monetary policies for the past two years.
`
` While not everyone is passionate about the financial markets or macroeconomics, most would be concern if they were to know the value of their money or hard-earned savings are increasingly eroded daily through no fault of theirs.
`
` The common method adopted by most would be to assess how much ringgit is worth against foreign currencies like US dollar, Singapore dollar, British pound and the likes. Another would be the actual purchasing power of your money. Combining both, it becomes the formula of purchasing power parity.
`
` I have written an article in this column last year using the Big Mac Index to illustrate inflationary effects. Today, as inflation is already here, I prefer to dwell into how individuals can protect their savings from inflation itself.
`
` Some would argue, they live in solitary and would hardly be impacted even if the ringgit weakened substantially. However, even one who does not travel abroad and lives entirely within the domestic ecosystem cannot run away from the impact of inflation.
`
` As the world economy is a huge interlinked web, connected via global trades, inflationary pressure can be imported through the transaction of goods or the fact that our country has foreign debts. There is no absolute way of shielding in entirety.
`
` Ceiling price for necessities and list of controlled items are what government of the day do to ensure some level of protection for the citizens but if market forces react otherwise, government intervention in itself is not sufficient to push back. This is proven even in the strictest communist or socialist regime around the world, such as North Korea.
`
` The only way to hedge against inflation is to engage in some form of investment. In the past, real estate has always been recognised as one of the best asset classes to preserve wealth and hedge against inflation. This ageold wisdom has survived through thousands of years and civilisations.
`
` New asset class

` As the society evolves and modern economy takes shape, there is now the creation of new asset class which in the past either simply do not exist or wouldn’t make sense to invest substantially. The more common form of investments are the likes of bonds, gold, fixed deposits and equities.

` Then came mutual funds and index-linked funds. Exchange-traded funds in recent years became wildly popular, especially when active investment returns did not provide the same kind of returns it once did.

` This gained traction for those who are mostly passive investors or do not have the time to do individual stock picking. Yet, despite all the asset classes mentioned above, these are all considered relatively acceptable to most people.

` With the millennials and Gen-z being in the workforce, technology have taken centrestage in every part of our lives even when it comes to asset classes. Cryptocurrency, non-fungible tokens (NFTS) and digital assets have made its way into mainstream financial markets where investment banks, which traditionally scoffs at such assets, have now become a part of the frenzy.
`
` Advocates of cryptocurrency, for instance, goes as far as calling it a hedge against inflation or hedge against “fiat currency” or the “new gold”.
`
` Traditional asset classes highlighted above are seen as out-of-date by the new crop of investors, whoever they are and wherever they may come from. I do not wish to debate the utility and viability of cryptocurrency, NFTS or digital assets. However, the big question to me though is, what truly constitutes a hedge against inflation?
`
` For an asset class to constitute a hedge against inflation, the more fundamental aspect is for the asset class to consistently outperform annual inflationary pressure. For example, if the inflation rate is 4% per annum over 10 years, the asset class that one invest in must outperform 4% per annum consistently across the same period.
`
` This asset class will then effectively hedge and protect the value of your money over a substantial duration of time.
`
` The challenge is finding a suitable asset class that is palatable to one’s risk tolerance, investment horizon and financial capability. This is why there are many varieties of asset classes in the financial markets that serve different purposes.
`
` Bonds and gold are good for those with low-risk appetite but do not expect spectacular returns from these asset class. In fact, many have questioned whether bonds and gold can still preserve value although this has been proven in the past during wars and turbulent times.

 ` Luxury items
`
` Then there are newer and more interesting physical and luxury items that isn’t part of the financial markets which appeared to hold the value very well. Minted limited edition Lego sets, select Hermes and Chanel handbags as well as tier-one luxury watch brands such as Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet and Rolex are such examples.
`
` An unopened Lego set delivers an average annual return of 11%. A Hermes Birkin has seen an average annual increase in price of 14% from 1980 to 2015. This is in comparison to the returns of gold at -2.1% and S&P 500 at 11.7% over the same period.
`
` For the Chanel Classic Medium Flap bag, the price has increased over the past 31 years, from US$1,150 (RM4,817) in 1990 to US$8,800 (RM36,858) in 2021. This gives an average annual return of 21.4% and a compound annual growth rate of 6.8% throughout the period.
`
` If we look at watches, the retail price of stainless steel sports watches have gone crazy in recent years. A Phillipe Patek Nautilus, which retailed at US$3,100 (RM12,985) in 1976 when it was first introduced, is retailing at today US$35,000 (RM146,485)
`
` What is more frightening is the secondary market or grey market pricing for these luxury goods due to the sheer difficulty of getting one at retail price.
`
` A standard Hermes Birkin sized 25 retails at around US$10,000 (RM41,885) but in the secondary market, it can fetch as high as US$25,000 (RM104,713). The Patek Nautilus in a grey market commands close to US$175,000 (RM733,000). The classic Rolex Submariner date steel, which retails at US$10,800 (RM45,236), commands a huge premium in the grey market at around US$20,000 (RM83,770).
`>
` Some may argue that these are the tactical strategy by the ultra-luxury brands to restrict supply and cause a demand shortage in order to drive up the price, making it a highly desirable product.

` However, the counter argument is the fact that these top range luxury brands are handcrafted and requires the hours to produce the finish product. The limited resources coupled with the need to ensure quality also limits supply.

` In the face of a rising affluent class and burgeoning upper-middle class globally, naturally these luxury brands become highly sought after. Once the second-hand market is able to preserve the value, it becomes a hedge against inflation.

` My biggest takeaway though is not which asset class would be the best hedge against inflation. Rather, even within each asset class, it requires homework, due diligence and careful selection in terms of investment to preserve wealth. Making the right decision to purchase or invest needs time and effort
`
` Not all that glitters are gold and in this case, selected steel watches may be worth more than a pure gold watch. So, choose the asset class that you can best understand and would be happy to hold over time in the face of inflation.

NG ZHU HANN Ng Zhu Hann is the author of “Once Upon A Time In Bursa”. He is a lawyer and former chief strategist of a Fortune 500 Corp. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.

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Generating sustainable retirement income

 

Generating sustainable retirement income

 

Many Malaysian are EPF contributors and have FDs as well. "You will never understand how bad the feeling is when you have to break your fixed deposit to cover your living expenses."

ONE of the top financial concerns of retirees is running out of money.

Whether you were an executive earning a reasonable income, or if you are making top dollars as a businessman, the fear is still valid.

For example, Tommy, who left the working world soon after selling his factory to a European multinational corporation. Tommy shared during one of our meetings that he was golfing every week and globe trotting almost every other month.

However, there was a problem that greatly bothered him. He found that he was dipping into his fixed deposit every now and then just to maintain his interesting lifestyle.

“Yap, you will never understand how bad the feeling is when you have to break your fixed deposit to cover your living expenses, ” he said.Combing through all of his finances, we discovered that Tommy’s lackadaisical attitude was to be blamed. He has not been paying enough attention to invest and generate income from the RM12mil nest egg that he had painstakingly accumulated. His investment portfolio was a mess.

Over the years, he invested in a few properties but never really bothered to oversee them. When tenants left, he didn’t make an effort to secure new tenants. In fact, some properties were even sitting vacant and idle. His excuse? He was too busy running the business.

Yap Ming HuiYap Ming Hui

Tommy has also invested in some shares and unit trusts but he seldom monitors and reviews their performances. Imagine his surprise when he went looking for some extra cash but discovered that most of the investments were not making money. Prior to meeting me, he couldn’t decide whether to sell or to keep those underperforming investments.

Consequently, the bulk of Tommy’s wealth is in fixed deposit. The trouble is the interest income from fixed deposit barely covers the impact of inflation. As such, if Tommy continues to spend on his interest income, he will risk having the principal depleted.

Asset rich, income poor

Tommy’s problem is a typical case of “Asset Rich, Income Poor.” His situation is definitely not unique. In fact, I find most self-made millionaires or business owners, typically strong at creating wealth from their business or professional career, but poor at generating income and gain from the created wealth.

For one, all the time spent ensuring their businesses succeed also takes them away from making sure that the wealth created is optimised.Let’s examine Tommy’s assets and see how it measures up (see chart).

The RM6mil in fixed deposit generate approximately 2% interest income. However, notice that the 2% of interest is not sufficient to offset the 4% inflation provision. As a result, there is negative net income coming from Tommy’s fixed deposit asset.

Tommy’s properties are worth RM3mil and only generates RM50,000 in rental income per annum. Nevertheless, this can be considered a net income because inflation will be hedged by capital appreciation (at least 4% per annum) of the properties.

The RM1mil in shares gives a total return of 5%. Factoring 4% inflation, the actual income received from share investment is RM10,000.

Unfortunately, the RM2mil unit trust investments didn’t offer any returns. After inflation provision, his unit trust investment has a net income of RM80,000.

The reality is if nothing is done now, Tommy’s wealth will continue to shrink by RM140,000 a year once inflation is factored to the equation. How does this play out for Tommy? The fact that he needs RM360,000 a year to maintain his current lifestyle will not augur well for him.

So, how can you prevent from ending up in Tommy’s situation?

The optimisation measures

> Remember to review the performance of each of your investment asset classes. In order to generate more income and gains, be proactive in getting rid of poor quality and poor performing investments. Look at each investment and ask yourself, should you keep it or should you sell?

> Consider moving fixed deposit into higher return investment.

Any gains from your fixed deposit would probably be eroded by inflation, especially given the current low interest, which will probably persist for quite some time. After calculating and providing for your emergency fund cash reserves, the balance of your fixed deposit should be invested into other investments that can generate higher return and income to hedge against inflation.

> Diversify the source of retirement income

Even if one investment asset can give you a good income and hedge against inflation, it does not mean that you must bet all or the majority of your wealth in it. For example, property investing. Some investors have found success in it. They were able to generate good capital appreciation and rental income.

As a result, they put a majority, if not all, of their wealth into properties. It may sound logical at first but rental income is not sustainable in the long run. It is subjected to changes, some of which cannot be controlled. Therefore, the best practice is still to diversify your retirement income across different asset classes, like share dividends and capital gains, unit trust gains, bond investment gains, retirement income products and others, so that it is not badly affected by any one impact.

The ability to grow your wealth during retirement years is important. Just because you have stopped working, it does not mean your money should stop working too. The idea behind wealth optimisation is to ensure that you can upkeep your retirement lifestyle and protect your wealth from inflation.

Ideally, one should get a plan done a few years prior to retirement to see how your retirement income would play out. After all, you wouldn’t want to have any unpleasant surprise, like in Tommy’s case. When you have time on your side, you can improve your investing skills and adjust your retirement plan accordingly while still in your active income earning years.

Yap Ming Hui is a licensed financial planner. The views expressed here are the author’s. Any reliance you place on the information https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/01/09/generating-sustainable-retirement-incomeshared is therefore strictly at your own risk.

 

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Malaysia's economy: Fine growth with minimal inflation

Click to enlarge:  http://clips.thestar.com.my.s3.amazonaws.com/clips/business/Business%20Pg6-0305.pdf

The economy continues to chug along just fine even as it recorded the first inflation of the year in March. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% in March 2019 from the previous year.

The recovery away from a deflation in the previous two months was driven by the transport and the food & non-alcoholic beverages components of the CPI.

MIDF Research said in its report that the country's consumer inflation is likely to stay low following the lower capped prices of RON95 and Diesel at RM2.08 and RM2.18 per litre respectively.

Nevertheless, it said that the demand-push factor remains firm amid stable job market and steady wage growth.

Meanwhile, labour force growth has maintained at 2.1% year-on-year (yoy) in Feb 2019 while employment growth inched down to 2.1% yoy while jobs added in the economy was recorded at 34,000.

It noted that the number of unemployed people officially increased by 1.6% yoy.

But it noted also that growth in both the labour force and employment continued to outpace unemployment growth for the last 24 months since Mar 2017.

"The stable job market reflects healthy development of Malaysia’s economy and provides solid support to domestic demand," the research house said.

Meanwhile, exports dropped 5.3% yoy in Feb 2019, the lowest in more than two years mainly due to a short calendar month on top of the long Chinese New Year (CNY) holidays.

Imports also fell and it declined more than exports at 9.4% yoy.

During the CNY holidays, all Chinese factories were shut down with most of them closed one or two weeks prior to the festive holidays. As the celebration put a halt to mass production, it disrupted the global supply chain resulting in a weak trade performance.

All sectors recorded a negative exports growth: agriculture (-13.7% yoy), manufacturing (-4.3% yoy) and mining (-5.5% yoy).

Despite the poor exports and imports figures, trade surplus maintained at above RM11bil in Feb 2019.

When compared with the previous month, both exports and imports contracted by 22% and 24.8% 
respectively.


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Malaysia's economy: stronger but eroding purchasing power

The story is the same everywhere – the rising cost of living has not been accompanied by an increase in wages.

HERE we go again – another set of impressive growth figures. Bank Negara has announced Malaysia’s latest economic growth at a commendable 6.2% in the third quarter of 2017.

The pace of economic growth for the three months up to September was faster than the 5.8% registered in the second quarter of the year.

This growth rate was the fastest since June 2014.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, the Malaysian economy posted a growth of 1.8% against 1.3% in the preceding quarter, according to the Statistics Department.

Malaysia’s robust economic growth has been attributed to private-sector spending and a continued strong performance in exports.

To quote Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Muhammad Ibrahim last Friday: “Expansion was seen across all economic sectors.”

But try explaining this impressive economic growth rate to the average salaried worker struggling to pay his monthly household bills.

Stretching the ringgit is especially great for those living in urban areas, and Malaysia is increasingly becoming urbanised.

The story is the same everywhere – the rising cost of living has not been accompanied by an increase in wages.

Compounding matters is the depreciation of the ringgit, reducing the purchasing power of the ordinary folk. They can’t buy the same amount of food as they used to previously.

Employers are being forced to cut operating costs to match declining profits.

Job security is becoming paramount. Many are fearful of losing their jobs, as companies cut cost to cope with the challenging business landscape.

And the reality is that many companies are not hiring, as evident from the unemployment rate of 3.4%.

The Malaysian Employers Federation (MEF) has cautioned that more people would be out of a job this year due to the current economic challenges.

Apart from the challenging landscape, technology has disrupted several brick-and-mortar businesses, forcing them to change their way of doing business.

According to MEF executive director Datuk Shamsuddin Bardan, economic challenges will compel bosses to review their workers’ requirements.

While official statistics show that the economy is charting a strong growth path, the trickle-down effect is not being felt.

Why is the sentiment on the ground different from what the politicians and officials are telling us? Why is there a disconnect in the economy?

Are the figures released by the government officials more accurate and authoritative compared with the loud grumblings on the ground that are anecdotical in nature devoid of proper findings?

We hear reports of supermarkets and hypermarkets closing down, but could that be because their business model no longer works as more Malaysians turn to online shopping, with e-commerce companies announcing huge jumps in traffic?

It is the same with the malls – retail outlets are reporting lower sales and this is compounded by the fact that there is an oversupply of malls.

International restaurant chains such as Hong Kong’s dim sum outlet Tim Ho Wan and South Korean bakery Tous Les Jours and South Korean barbeque restaurant Bulgogi Brothers have ceased operations.

But then again, it could be that their offerings and prices had failed to compete effectively against the local choices.

According to the central bank, demand is anchored in private-sector spending.

“On the supply side, the services and manufacturing sectors remain the key drivers of growth,” Muhammad said.

Looking ahead, the governor said that the economy this year is poised to register strong growth and likely to hit the upper end of the official target of 5.2%-5.7%.

The trickle-down effect is not being felt simply because there is uneven growth in the various sectors of the economy.

The property sector, which provides the biggest multiplier effect, continues to be in the doldrums.

The weak ringgit has had a big impact on the price of food, especially processed food and beverages that make up 74.3% of Malaysian household spending.

It was reported that Malaysia had imported a whopping RM38bil worth of food between January and October last year.

In recent weeks, the ringgit has strengthened to about RM4.16 against the US dollar. But it is still far from RM3.80 to the dollar and the outlook of the currency remains uncertain.

We can’t even hold our heads up against the Thai baht and Indonesian rupiah – two currencies that have appreciated against the ringgit.

The headline economic numbers are showing good growth, but Malaysians’ purchasing power has dropped and our living standards have eroded. That is the bottom line. We are living in denial if we do not admit this.

This column first appeared in StarBiz Premium.

Source: On the beat by Wong Chun Hai, TheStaronline

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Dealing with the new abnormal negative interest rate policies with exceptional high debt

Negative rates: ECB president Mario Draghi at the Brussels Economic Forum on Thursday. The ECB and Bank of Japan are already experimenting with negative interest rate policies. – Reuters

HOW can this be normal?

Twenty-nine countries with roughly 60% of the world’s GDP have monetary policy rates of less than 1% per annum. The world is awash with debt, with sovereign, corporate and household debt of over US$230 trillion or roughly three times world GDP.

To finance their large debt and deal with deflation, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan are already experimenting with negative interest rate policies (NIRP). If these do not work, look out for helicopter money, which means central bank funding of even larger fiscal deficits.

Either way, at near zero interest rates, the business model of banks, insurers and fund managers are broken. Deutschebank’s CEO has recently warned that European bank profits will struggle more as negative interest rates play into deposit rates. No wonder bank shares are trading below book value.

The problem with the current economic analysis is that no one can ascertain whether exceptionally low interest is a symptom or a cause of deep chronic malaise. Exceptionally high debt burden can only be financed by exceptionally low interest rates. The Fed now feels confident enough to raise interest rates, which means that the US asset bubbles will begin to deflate, spelling trouble to those who borrow too much in US dollars, which would include a number of emerging markets.

As Nomura chief economist Richard Koo asserts, the world has followed Japan into a balance sheet recession, with the corporate sector refusing to invest and consumer/savers too worried about outcomes to spend. The solution to a balance sheet (imbalanced) story is to re-write the balance sheet, which most democratic government cannot do without a financial crisis. 

Like Japan, China’s dilemma is an internal debt issue of left hand owing the right hand, since both countries are net lenders to the world. This means that foreigners cannot trigger a crisis by withdrawing funds. The Chinese national balance sheet is also almost unique because the financial system is largely state-owned lending mostly (about two thirds) to state-owned enterprises or local governments. The Chinese household sector is also lowly geared, with most debt in residential mortgages and even these were bought (until recently) with relatively high equity cushions.

Unlike the US federal government which had a net liability of US$11 trillion or 67% of GDP at the end of 2013, the Chinese central government had net assets of US$4 trillion or 42% of GDP. Chinese local governments had net assets of a further US$11 trillion or 123% of GDP, compared to US local government net assets of 45% of GDP. Local governments hold more assets than central or federal government because most state land and buildings belong to provincial or local authorities.

Thus, unlike the US where households own 95% of net assets in the country, Chinese households own roughly half of national net assets, with the corporate sector (at least half of which is state-owned) owning roughly 30% and the state the balance. In total, the Chinese state owns roughly one-third of the net assets within the country, compared to net 4% for the US federal and state governments.

Sceptics would argue that Chinese statistics are overstated, but even if the Chinese state net assets are halved in value (because land valuation is complicated), there would be at least US$7.5 trillion of state net assets (net of liabilities) or 82% of GDP to deal with any contingencies.

Furthermore, unlike the Fed, ECB or Bank of Japan, the People’s Bank of China derives its monetary power mostly from very high levels of statutory reserves on the banking system, which is equivalent to forced savings to finance its foreign exchange reserves of US$3.2 trillion. Thus, the central bank has more room than other central banks to deal with domestic liquidity issues.

What can be done with this high level of state net assets, which is in essence public wealth? My crude estimate is that if the rate of return on such assets can be improved by 1% under professional management, GDP could be increased by at least 1.5 percentage points (1% on 165% of GDP of net state assets).

How can this re-writing of the balance sheet be achieved? There are two possibilities. One is to allow local governments to use their net assets to deleverage their own local government debt and their own state-owned enterprise debt. This could be achieved through professionally managed provincial level asset management/debt restructuring companies.

The second method is inject some of the state net assets into the national and provincial social security funds as a form of returning state assets to the public. People tend to forget that other than the painful restructuring of state-owned enterprises in the late 1990s, which led to the creation of China’s global supply chain, the single largest measure to create Chinese household wealth was the selling of residential property at below market prices to civil servants.

The size of the wealth transfer was never officially calculated, but it paved the way for boosting of domestic consumption by giving many households the beginnings of household security.

The injection of state assets into national and social security funds was not achieved in the 1990s, because the state of provincial social security fund accounting was not ready. But if China wants to boost domestic consumption and improve healthcare and social security, now is the time to use state assets to inject into such funds.

At the end of 2014, Chinese social security fund assets amounted to 4 trillion yuan, compared with central government net assets of 27 trillion yuan (Chinese Academy of Social Science data, 2015). Hence, the injection of state assets (including injection by provincial and local government) into social security funds as a form of stimulus to domestic consumption and more professional management of public wealth is clearly an affordable policy option.

In sum, at the individual borrower level, there is no doubt an ever increasing leverage ratio in China is not sustainable. But the big picture situation is manageable. If the policy objective is to improve overall productivity (and GDP growth) by improving the output of public assets, the timing is now.

By Tan Sri Andrew Sheng who is Distinguished Fellow, Asia Global Institute, University of Hong Kong.


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