Chinese economy expands 6.9% in 2015, slowest growth in 25 years

Video: http://t.cn/R4QD2R0China’s economy posted a 6.9 percent GDP growth in 2015, which is within people’s expectations. Faced with suspicions, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) emphasized that the figure – 6.9 percent – is real.

On the one hand, with an increasing number of “struggling” companies, the economic downturn has become a heated subject of public opinion. On the other hand, other fields, for instance, tourism, railways and online shopping, are seeing robust growth. So, taken together with the affirmation by the NBS, we can have confidence in the accuracy of the figure.

It is safe to say that people still have much confidence in the economy. Despite an economic downturn, people’s willingness to spend is witnessing an upward trend. Consumption is contributing more to GDP growth. Compared with some pessimistic comments, an increase in consumption can better reflect public confidence. In addition, citizens’ plans for their families and their futures are positive as a whole. Admittedly, the loss of confidence in the stock market has exerted negative effects. Society has varying degrees of confidence in the economy.

The 6.9-percent increase in GDP will not strike a blow to the confidence of Chinese society. Even if the figure were slightly lower, there is still a lot to sustain people’s confidence. In fact, different from Western society, politics carries some weight in how confident Chinese people feel.

There are a number of factors contributing to the public’s confidence in the economy. First of all, people believe in the government. As long as the government’s determination and confidence to develop the economy can be seen, the public will be reassured. The government has made many commitments regarding economic development and people's living standards. It is becoming increasingly honest about the difficulties as well. The government’s backbone is not weakening. Yet, there is increasing dissatisfaction with the laziness of some officials. This new phenomenon is worth paying attention to.

The Chinese people are confident about the country’s market potentials. They know that the country lags behind in many aspects and that great efforts are needed. People tend to believe that it will be an arduous task to narrow the gap of people’s livelihood between China and developed countries. Despite the long road ahead, few people believe the process will break down.

Since the Communist Party of China launched the anti-graft drive and pushed forward reforms, many people expected the country to make greater achievements. But China is in a full-fledged transitional period. Its 1.4 billion population is to China’s advantage.

Complaints can be heard in China, and many concerns are well grounded. Some people try to seek a sense of security by applying for a foreign green card and transferring their assets overseas. But China’s status as the world’s biggest emerging market and potential for opportunities is as significant as ever.

China has plenty of tasks. Many cities still lag behind in basic infrastructure. Many roads need to be rebuilt. The key for change is economic growth. In addition, medical care cannot meet public demand. Many parents have sent their children abroad due to the low quality of education. The Chinese people’s concept of consumption is changing fundamentally and people long for improved living standards. These will all serve as a robust foundation for sustainable economic growth.

There should not be any fear that the 6.9 percent growth will upset Chinese society. The Chinese people will remain confident. The government needs to achieve concrete results and need not rush to adjust its policies. Many problems will be solved as long as China is on the right path. - Global Times

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European anti-crisis strategy: Sex, drugs, alcohol could boost economic growth

The euro sculpture is seen outside the headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany. European governments are slowly turning to drugs, sex and contraband as a way to boost their respective economies. — Reuters pic

European governments are turning their attention to prostitution, drugs and contraband as possible ways of boosting their economic growth profiles, as they struggle away from their debt crises, AFP reports. 

Sex and drugs to add to Europe's murky GDP figures

Italy caused a stir when it announced last month that it would begin including revenues from drug trafficking and the sex trade, as well as contraband tobacco and alcohol, to calculate gross domestic product (GDP) from next year.

One effect would be to reduce the public deficit as a ratio of output, if EU authorities were to accept the idea. That would be a big help to countries trying to get their public deficits below the EU ceiling of 3.0 percent of output.

In 2012, Italy's central bank estimated the value of the criminal economy at 10.9 percent of GDP. Including these figures could therefore boost the country's growth to above the government's 1.3 percent estimate.

Last month, Britain said including illegal activities such as prostitution and drugs into national accounts would add about 10 billion pounds (12.3 billion euros, $16.8 billion) to GDP, equivalent to about one percent of national output.

Using the undeclared or so-called black economy to calculate national statistics is part of a range of changes recommended by the European Union's statistical institute, Eurostat, to be implemented in September.

Eurostat said including such data would allow a better comparison between countries with different laws.

"GDP is not an indicator of morality," said a spokesman, adding that only transactions carried out consensually would be included.

But others are less convinced.

Eric Vernier, researcher at the Institute of International Relations, said including "gross criminal product" in growth figures is a cynical attempt to combat the Eurozone's debt crisis.

"The problem is to put this new statistical method on the table at the moment when everyone has budget problems," he said.

"There has been a general acceptance of this accounting approach since the crisis: what matters most is what goes into the state coffers."

"Denial of basic morality"

Many of Europe's struggling governments will welcome any boost to growth figures that will reassure both disillusioned voters and markets.

But the decision has sparked outrage among politicians and rights groups.

The French minister for women's rights Najat Vallaud-Belkacem and Belgium's Interior Minister Joelle Milquet, have both written to the European Commission to express their "astonishment" over the proposals.

"Prostitution is not a voluntary commercial activity. To believe that it can have an ideological bias is a mirage and an insult to the millions of victims of sexual exploitation worldwide", they said.

"Prostitution cannot be assumed to be a transaction freely agreed between parties. The question also arises concerning drugs, especially hard drugs, considering the issue of addiction," added Ronan Mahieu, head of INSEE, which calculates France's GDP.

A spokeswoman for the Association for the Protection of Women's Rights in Britain said the group was "surprised and saddened" by the decision.

While in France, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the extreme-right National Front party which came top in recent European Parliament elections, described it as a "denial of basic morality."

'Shadow market'

Europe's black market is already huge, according to experts.

Friedrich Schneider, professor at the Johannes Kepler University of Linz in Austria, estimates that the European Union's "shadow market" is equal to 18.6 percent of the bloc's 2014 GDP.

But calculating the value of illegal activities is no easy task.

An EU document from 2012, littered with acronyms and complex mathematical formulas, gives guidelines on how to calculate the "inputs" of the prostitution industry, such as the cost of renting an apartment, or "transport and storage" for drug traffickers.

It even includes how to interpret the "ratio of purity" in narcotics.

Schneider argues that undeclared illegal activities and "value creating" services such as prostitution should be included in the calculations, but not totally criminal activities.

On this basis, Germany, Italy and France account for about half of Europe's black-market activities.

In recession-hit Greece, he estimates that black market transactions account for an estimated 23 percent of GDP, lower than the estimated 40 percent of the less-developed economies of Eastern Europe, but far higher than the roughly eight percent in Luxembourg. - AFP

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Malaysia GDP grew by 5% in Q3 2013, Economy and Growth Outlook projections

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5% in the third quarter, faster than the 4.7% expansion most economists had predicted, as the economy benefited from strong domestic demand and a rebound in exports.

Bank Negara yesterday also revised the country’s second-quarter growth to 4.4% from 4.3% previously. The central bank is maintaining its full-year growth forecast at 4.5% to 5%.

The GDP is one of the primary indicators used to gauge the health of a country’s economy. It represents the total dollar value of all goods and services produced over a specific timeframe.

“Domestic demand remained the key driver of growth, expanding by 8.3%, while exports turned around to grow by 1.7%,” Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz said at a press conference.

She noted that emerging signs of a recovery in the major advanced economies are expected to support overall growth.

“For the Malaysian economy, the gradual recovery in the external sector would support growth. Domestic demand from the private sector would remain supportive of economic activity amid the continued consolidation of the public sector,” she said. “Going forward, economic growth is expected to be sustained although risks continue to remain.”

She said the global economic recovery was under way, but with downside risks from uncertainties over the fiscal and monetary adjustments in several of the major advanced economies.

“The other main contributor to GDP is investment, which is even more important as investment activity leads to capacity expansion, and allows our economy to experience future growth,” she said.

Malaysia’s current account surplus for the third quarter jumped to RM9.8bil, equivalent to 4.1% of the gross national income (GNI), from RM1.5bil in the second quarter.

This was mainly due to a higher surplus in the goods account. The GNI comprises the GDP together with income received from other countries less similar payments made to other countries.

She said net exports turned around and posted a positive growth of 1.6% after seven consecutive quarters of declines, driven by external demand, high commodity prices and strong investment activities.

The ringgit also experienced volatility in the third quarter, as expectations for a scale back in the US Federal Reserve’s asset purchase programme prompted a reversal of capital flows from most regional financial markets.

“The volatility was to a lesser extent than what we had seen previously at the height of the global financial crisis. The movement is similar to other currencies,” Zeti said.

She said the foreign exchange market was significantly larger and liberalised now and market players were, therefore, doing the intervention. However, she said Bank Negara would intervene if there were any severe volatility or market disorder.

“The region is in a better position to cope with more volatile conditions, as the financial markets are now larger, better developed and more mature.

“We believe there will not be an exodus out of this region, as our region remains an important growth centre in the global economy and, therefore, we will still be the destination for investment activities,” Zeti said.

The consumer price index was also higher at 2.2% due to higher inflation in the transport and food and non-alcoholic beverages categories.

Speaking on the subsidy rationalisation plans the Government has embarked on, she said the opportunity still existed for these price adjustments to be made gradually.

“We are on a steady growth path, and we have not experienced strong demand that would result in strong inflationary pressures. Therefore, it is a good time to make such adjustments,” Zeti said.

-Bernama/The Star/Asia News Network

Malaysia Economy Outlook 2013

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 18, 2013): The Malaysian economy is expected to see between 4.6% and 4.7% growth in gross domestic product (GDP) for 2013, according to economists, in line with Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) projection of a 4.5% to 5% growth this year.

Alliance Research revised its full-year GDP forecast marginally upwards to 4.6% from 4.5% previously, after BNM released the third quarter (Q3) GDP data on friday which saw a stronger growth of 5% for the quarter on the back of a strong recovery in the external sector, as well as expansion in domestic demand. The research house anticipates a 4.8% growth in Q4.

"While growth may be affected by the recent announcements on the sequencing of certain Economic Transformation Projects and policy reforms such as the subsidy rationalisation programmes, we remain positive that the improving external environment would likely offset the weakness and support growth in the coming quarters," said Alliance Research economists Manokaran Mottain and Khairul Anwar Nor Md in a note.

For 2014, it expects growth to pick up to 5%, underpinned by robust domestic demand and improving external conditions.

RHB Research Institute estimated real GDP to grow at 4.7% in 2013, at a slower pace than the 5.6% growth recorded in 2012.

"Growth, however, will likely bounce back and register a faster pace of 5.4% in 2014, as domestic demand will remain a key driver of growth along side with a further improvement in exports," said its economist Peck Boon Soon.

The central bank said going forward, the gradual recovery in the external sector will support growth. Domestic demand from the private sector will remain supportive of economic activity amid the continued consolidation of the public sector. The economy is therefore expected to remain on its steady growth trajectory.

Meanwhile, BNM Governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz stressed that the current volatility in the financial market is comparatively lesser than that experienced during the global financial crisis.

"We're in a position to cope. We've significant reserves of US$137 billion (RM446.2 billion) and we've many swap arrangements with other banks around the region. The region can come together to respond collectively if there's any crisis.

"Previously (under harsher conditions), we'll probably have a 1% to 2% growth. Now we've rebalanced our economy where domestic demand is an important driver, so it'll allow a 4% to 5% growth," said Zeti.

She said Malaysia's financial markets are larger, better developed and more mature now, adding that financial intermediaries are stronger and more importantly, there is greater diversification of portfolios.

"We believe there's not going to be an exodus out of our region (Asia) and it remains an important growth centre in the global economy. Therefore we'll still be a destination for investment activities," said Zeti.

On the ringgit, she said its volatility is similar to the movements of other currencies.

"We've liberalised the market to allow for unlimited hedging for an unlimited time period to hold a foreign currency account. Our corporate sector is in a better position to better manage their foreign exchange exposure, given that we've seen significant two-way flows. "In the event when the market has a risk of becoming disorderly, the central bank will step in to smooth out that volatility."

However, she said in the medium term, the ringgit should reflect the economy's underlying fundamentals.

"If all remains positive, (ringgit) should see an appreciating trend… but as fundamentals change drastically over a short period of time, then the appreciating should remain in a gradual trend."

Contributed by  Ee Ann Nee The Sundaily

Malaysia's 2013 forecast growth revised by IMF

THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth forecast for Malaysia to five per cent for 2013 from its previous projection of 4.7 per cent.

Growth will be underpinned by the domestic demand, with low unemployment and subdued inflation.

In its latest medium-term outlook, which was released following its Article IV Consultation recently, IMF projected growth until 2017 to be between 5.1 per cent and 5.2 per cent.

"Although the domestic demand growth pace is lower than that recorded in 2012, it is still sizeable at over six per cent from 11.6 per cent last year," IMF resident representative Dr Ravi Balakrishnan told the Business Times from Singapore yesterday.

Higher spending by households, firms and the government on consumer and capital goods has offset weak exports to Europe and the rest of the world.

Consumption has been supported by low interest rates, a strong labour market and fiscal transfers to households.

Balakrishnan said Malaysia has done remarkably well and displayed resilience like its neighbours in the face of the global crisis, chalking a 5.6 per cent growth for 2012.

The rebalancing of Malaysia's economy towards greater domestic demand - from its dependence on trade - has led to a significant deterioration in Malaysia's external current account balance, to a surplus of about six per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) last year, compared to 11 per cent in 2011.

The IMF released the details of its annual assessment last Friday together with its first financial sector assessment programme for Malaysia, which endorsed the resilience of the well-capitalised financial sector.

Malaysia's growth story was better than what the IMF expected.

"We are happy with the developments for the near term but there are challenges on the fiscal front for the economy to realise the growth level of 2020."

The government's revenue base needs to shift from the oil and gas receipts, which account for about a third of the total.

The planned goods and services tax would help broaden the revenue base, while the gradual rationalisation of the subsidies programme would help reduce spending pressures while staggering the impact on inflation and incomes.

In the case of investments, he said to sustain the current levels, there must be concerted efforts towards structural reforms, including education to help reduce its skills gap and increase the contribution of human capital.

The report said the Fund welcomed the introduction of a minimum wage this year, which should support the incomes of poorer workers, and recommends considering the introduction over time of unemployment insurance and reforms to the pension system to further strengthen social protection.

Government debt is expected to decline gradually relative to GDP over the next five years, reaching about 51 per cent of GDP by 2017.

The Fund has recommended that there be more "front-loaded" consolidation efforts to reduce the probability of breaching the debt ceiling and ensure the government's goal of reducing debt to 40 per cent of GDP by 2020.

Balakrishnan said while the target to reduce debt is lauded, it is also important that there be more transparency in the concrete measures that Malaysia plans to undertake.

Contributed by Rupa Damodaran Business Times

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Penang's economy growth declines to 1.8% in 9 months 2012

GEORGE TOWN: Penang’s economy slowed down in the first nine months of the year, said Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Donald Lim.

“The state’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of about 5.7% in 2008 has dropped to 1.8% from January to September this year.

“The poor GDP record has put Penang, which used to record one of the highest growth rates in the country, in seventh position behind places like Kuala Lumpur and and Johor,” he said.

Lim said Johor recorded a GDP growth of more than 6%, exceeding the national average of 5.3%, adding that 1.8% was below average and the Chief Minister (Lim Guan Eng) had to answer for this.

“By right, Penang should be doing very well as many people are flocking to the state which has a service-skilled workforce.

“I’m surprised that Penang has done so poorly,” he said at the Malaysian Economy and 2013 Budget Economic Forum at a hotel here Saturday .

Asked why the Penang economy recorded such a slow growth, Lim quipped, “Probably he (the Chief Minister) didn’t work hard enough!”

“Perhaps his methods and direction are wrong or that he didn’t do enough homework. Maybe he is too busy with other things.

“I’m not saying that he’s not doing his job, this is for the rakyat to decide,” he said.

Lim added the Ministry of Finance was forecasting the last quarter of the year to record a GDP of about 5.2%.

He assured Malaysians that the country’s economy was not headed towards bankruptcy as speculated by certain quarters.

“We have a RM456bil debt as of last year but our revenue is RM881bil, and we incur a deficit of about 58.2%.

“Our economy is doing much better compared to our Asean counterparts such as Singapore which has a deficit of 107%. Even countries like the United States and those in European Union are suffering from a higher debt.

“Malaysia practices an open economic policy and as of Oct 15, our foreign reserve has reached RM424bil, making us the 19th biggest foreign reserve country in the world,” he said.

The forum, organised by the MCA Bukit Gelugor division, was attended by some 300 people comprising Barisan Nasional division leaders, community leaders and businessmen.

Also present were Penang MCA deputy chairman Datuk Dr Loh Hock Hun, Bukit Gelugor MCA division chairman Datuk Koay Kar Huah and Komtar Barisan co-ordinator Loh Chye Teik. - The Star

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